Arrests in Zakarpacie and suspension of Ukrainian-Hungarian talks

On 9 May the safety Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced the exposing of 2 agents – erstwhile Ukrainian Army soldiers recruited by Hungarian military intelligence. They were to carry out spy activities in Zakarpacie, inhabited by respective tens of thousands of Hungarians. Both were detained and charged with treason, and they are facing life imprisonment. Their task was to gather information on military facilities and equipment in the region, identify weaknesses in defence, and survey the political sentiments of the residents, including the reaction to the "Hungarian peacekeeping forces". According to the service, the Hungarian intelligence besides sought to get data from the front line, including losses of the armed forces.

Hungarian abroad Minister Péter Szijártó assessed SBU's information as "the anti-Hungarian propaganda of Kiev", and Budapest reacted immediately by expelling 2 Ukrainian embassy workers who were to conduct intelligence activities. As part of the repression, Kiev expelled 2 Hungarian diplomats, to which Budapest responded with a demonstration detention and deportation of a erstwhile Ukrainian embassy worker accused of espionage. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian MFA Heorhi Tychyj called the Hungarians' conduct “witchhunt” and accused the anti-Ukrainian authorities of hysteria. On 11 May, Hungarian Deputy Minister of abroad Affairs Levente Magyar cancelled the next day's intergovernmental consultation in Uzhhoroda on the opposition to Kiev's policy towards the Hungarian national minority, scheduled after the visit of Deputy Prime Minister Olhi Stefanishina on 29 April in Budapest.On May 13, Viktor Orbán accused TISZA organization – the main opposition force in the country – for engagement in Ukrainian counterintelligence.

The disclosure of the Hungarian agent in Zakarpacie seems to be a consequence to Budapest's blocking of the European integration of Ukraine. In the face of the melting hopes of breaking it, Kiev's nonsubjective may be to exert additional emphasis on bilateral discussions and to encourage EU countries to exert stronger force on Hungary. The allegations of Ukrainian services, if confirmed by a trial, will lead to further erosion of assurance in Budapest in the EU and NATO. The increase in tension with Kiev may even be beneficial to the local government in national politics, as it fits into its anti-Ukrainian campaign.

Comment

• Revealing the Hungarian agent in Ukraine is an unprecedented step leading to the escalation of friction with the neighbour. Although Kiev does not comment on the issue at a advanced level, the SBU action can service to discredit Hungary in the eyes of EU partners and to mobilise them to find a solution to bypass Budapest's veto erstwhile voting on beginning the first negotiating cluster (see IP/10/27). Cluster, open up! Chances and threats of Ukraine on the way to the EU). Hungary has been blocking this since February (see Increase in Hungarian course towards Ukraine), and an crucial fresh context for these events are discussions in the EU on the unbundling of the integration processes of Ukraine and Moldova (packaged so far) – the advancement of the second Budapest doesn't object. Kiev's calculations may have been further supported by signals coming from Brussels, including from Vice-President Kai Kallas of the European Commission, announcing the readiness for alternate actions in the absence of a compromise and Hungary's maintenance of a veto.
• Arresting on the eve of the consultation in Uzhhorad may show a deficiency of religion in Ukraine in the anticipation of convincing the neighbour to retreat the opposition. Kiev thus wants to show that Budapest's last moves are yet another manifestation of its breaking out of Western unity on the issue of Ukraine (see. Orbán's blackmail: the Hungarian threat of blocking Ukraine's integration into the EU). Moreover, the nature of the information collected in this country (the activity of Hungarian intelligence in the ethnically heterogeneous area and for centuries belonging to the Hungarian crown seems likely) is read as probing the ground under the hostile steps of Budapest in the region. In turn, SBU's information on attempts to get data from the front line raises suspicions from the point of view of their possible usefulness to Russia.
• The anti-Ukrainian run is simply a central subject of the communicative of the Hungarian government, and the fresh actions of Kiev can be beneficial to Budapest. At present, the local authorities present the possible accession of a neighbour to the EU as the biggest threat to Hungarian interests and point out to Kiev the alleged persecution of the Hungarian number in Zakarpacie. The anti-Ukrainian rhetoric of the Government of Orbán besides hits opposition, accused of supporting Ukraine's position in the context of war and accession aspirations. Prime Minister's rivalry in the Spring 2026 parliamentary elections. – Péter Magyar – has tried not to discuss Ukraine so far. Orbán seeks to impose a communicative that the actions of the SBU and the opposition are supposedly coordinated, which besides allows him to divert attention from the troublesome authorities of the latest Magyar reports. The day before the disclosure of the activities of Hungarian agents, he published a video of April 2023, on which defence minister Kristóf Szlay-Bobrovniczky stated at an interior gathering that the government "breaks up peace mentality" and creates "ready to fight" armed forces. It is not known precisely what actions may be involved, but the opposition points to the ruling hypocrisy, as it contradicts the authoritative "peaceful" communicative of the authorities.