Analysis of Nigerian elections

02.06. 2023 Developed by: Matthew KABACINSKI

On 25 February 2023, the presidential and general elections were held in Nigeria. The results were published in the early morning on 1 March 2023. Winner Bola Tinubu, which was supported by 36.61% of voters, which means that 8,794,726 votes were cast for him. Of the 17 another candidates applying for President's seat, Tinbu could only seriously endanger Atiku Abubakar – the main opposition candidate and erstwhile vice president, and Peter Obi – a challenger who is popular among young voters. As a consequence of the vote, they received 6,984,520 and 6,101,533 votes (29.77% and 25.4% respectively). Long waiting time for results[1] mainly caused method difficulties and safety problems in any provinces[2]. There have besides been reports of firearms incidents in any polling stations where voters were attacked by armed men[3].

On the same day, elections were held to the legislature and the home of Representatives, and in the mediate of March – governorial elections. The above threads will be approximated later on.

Who were the candidates?

Bola Tinubu is simply a 70-year-old typical of the centre-left ruling organization legislature of All Progressives legislature (APC), an cultural Muslim Joruba native to Lagos – the southwestern state of Nigeria. He had previously served as politician of this region[4]. Known by its supporters as ‘Jagaban’[5], Tinubu in the run advocated expanding the level of safety in the country and improving infrastructure. He besides promised to resolve the issue of rising public debt[6].

Atiku Abubakar is simply a 76-year-old Muslim from Fulani cultural group, representing the People’s Democratic Party, PDP. He served as vice president of the country from 1999 to 2007. In the election campaign, he competed under the slogan "My Agreement with Nigeria". He announced unity, peace and improvement of the country's economical situation. The President's seat was sought for the sixth time[7].

Peter Obi represents the Labour organization (LP), which enjoys little popularity among the general public but more popularity of the youth. Among another candidates, it stands out as a comparatively young age, as 61 years old. He is simply a Christian, belonging to an cultural group from the southeast of Igbo. Prior to his political activity, he was politician of the state of Anambra. During his election campaign, he proclaimed, among others, the reconstruction of the country by resolving insecurity problems and reducing unemployment[8].

Electoral Commission

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is the institution set up by the Constitution to conduct and supervise elections in the country as President, Vice President, Members of the State Chambers, Governors, their deputies and members of the legislature and home of Representatives.[9].

According to INEC data, 93 469 008 voters were registered in this year's election, and about 87 million received the Permanent Voters Card (PVC) – a paper authorising voting. Among them, 52.5 percent were men and 47.5% were women. The voting age structure is as follows:

• 39.65 percent of registered voters are in the age scope 18 to 34,
• 35.75 percent are 35 to 49,
• 18.94 percent are people aged 50 to 69,
• 5.66% are people aged 70 and over[10].

The Commission indicated that electoral attendance in erstwhile years, i.e. in 2015 and 2019, ranged from 30 to 35 percent. In this year's elections, it was even lower, with about 24.9 million Nigerians voting, representing only 29 percent of the full number of registered voters[11].

New technology

This year's elections differed importantly from the others due to the usage of fresh equipment and technology. During the vote, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation strategy (BVAS) was utilized as a two-modal facial designation and fingerprint strategy to improve the transparency of elections and hinder attempts at falsifying the process.

Along with BVAS, there is besides an IRev (INEC consequence Viewing), which is simply a portal for viewing the results. It has the same function as BVAS, but works on a different principle. BVAS is simply a data collection system, while IRev reads it, catalogues it, and then sends it to INEC. After verification the results are published on the authoritative INEC platform[12]. BVAS was tested in the follow-up election in 2021 and 2022, the last of which were the elections for the governors of Ekiti and Osun[13].

According to the BBC, in the erstwhile 2 elections the winner was announced at the earliest 3rd day after the vote. This year's elections introduced an electronic transportation system, which led many citizens to anticipate faster transportation of results. Initially, the strategy was intended to increase transparency and prevent manipulation, allowing the publication of the digital version of the results on the electoral commission's website. However, many voters complained that election officials refused to send results from local voting places as they should. On the another hand, officials claimed that in any places they did not have access to the Internet, which prevented them from sending the results. In any situations, voters made their cell phones available to officials themselves so that they could communicate the essential information. In addition, reports of disturbances in INEC centres have been reported in any states[14].

On February 26, 2023, the African nonprofit organization YAIGA Africa reported that the BVAS system, despite insignificant shortcomings, worked decently in 88% of the full number of 176 606 polling venues. 93 percent of the premises followed electoral procedures and additional arrangements concerning the electoral process, and the data of registered voters were systematically checked in the register. More than 9% of employees' electoral premises are defined as "unprofessional" and "party". On the another hand, 5% of the premises did not keep the vote secret due to the deficiency of election booths[15].

How does the electoral process work?

The election process distinguishes the following stages: pre-election, primary, nominations and campaign.

1. Pre-election phase – includes presentation by candidates of political parties of manifestos. At this stage, all voting rights are expected to registry with INEC. Moreover, the committee announces an election date so that the trial can begin.
2. Primary – at this phase there is an intraparty selection. Candidates undergo interior verification. On the basis of this, the nomination is carried out.
3. Appointments – all political organization nominates a candidate to represent it during the election. It must comply with the basic requirements set out in the electoral act, national constitution and INEC guidelines.
4. Campaign – at this stage, political parties and their nominees are campaigning extensively to support and vote the public as part of the agenda that the committee reports. The run can be conducted in a conventional way (placements, leaflets) and via social media[16].

What's the vote like?

Before going to the polling place you should check which 1 we are registered with. Upon arrival, the INEC authoritative checks our data utilizing the BVAS system. This confirms our belonging to a peculiar election venue and the authenticity of PVC. The authoritative then asks us to put a finger on the reader to verify our biometric data. The next step is to check whether the data is in the Voter Register. If not, we are asked to leave the premises without disturbing the order. If everything is successful, we shall be allowed to vote. The authoritative stampes, signs and approves our ballot card, and we should check whether it was done correctly, due to the fact that if the signature, stamp and approval on the card are incomplete, the card becomes invalid. Then we get a ballot, wrapped in a rotation with a printed page inside. We decision to the voting booth, where we dye our finger with ink and mark the field of the organization we give our vote to the candidate. After casting the vote, the card should be rolled up and flattened in a certain way and then thrown into the urn. This final step takes place in public, in front of another voters present. Then we leave the premises and wait for the results to be announced after counting the votes and deciding[17].

In order to win the presidential election, the candidate must receive the highest number of votes cast across the country and at least a 4th of the vote in a minimum of 24 out of 36 states of the country. If the first circular doesn't choice the winner, the 2 best candidates will face the second round. Under the Constitution, the second circular must take place within 21 days of the announcement of the results of the first[18].

Post-election reactions

Shortly after announcing the authoritative results of the presidential election, opposition parties began formulating the grounds that the elections were to be falsified. Datti-Baba Ahmad, organization candidate for vice president representing LP, said: “We have won these elections as Labour Party, we intend to apply for our mandate.” According to Samson Itodo, the head of YIAGA Africa, there are serious concerns about the electoral process. The main problems, specified as force and method problems, have weakened public assurance in the electoral process. He besides said that the largest opposition parties jointly criticised election results, claiming that they had been falsified and manipulated. A spokesperson for the Ndi Kato Labour organization presidential run stated in 1 statement: “We are rebellious. Elections have been falsified’[19]. The United Nations called on all stakeholders to stay calm at the end of the electoral process[20].

What are Nigerians facing?

The main issues raised by the Nigerian voters were safety and economical problems. The current economical challenge is the alleged cash crisis due to the decision of erstwhile president Muhammad Buhari to introduce fresh banknotes naira (₦) shortly before the election. The Central Bank of Nigeria in October 2022 announced the start of redesigning 200 ₦ (43 US cents), 500 ₦ (1.08 USD) and 1000 ₦ (2.17 USD) banknotes to combat inflation and financial counterfeiting. This led to the request to exchange old banknotes, but it proved more hard to get fresh ones than expected[21]. It besides led to long queues before banks and protests in any regions of the country. This change has paradoxically affected food prices and inflation. Public debt besides increased which reached USD 220 billion. In order to alleviate the crisis, Buhari extended the anticipation of utilizing old banknotes as legal tender until 10 April 2023.[22]

Electoral fraud and social unrest are also challenge. In fresh years, there have been many cases of bribery and vote buying in Nigeria. In response, INEC introduced a ban on the usage of mobile phones in polling stations to halt illegal practices. In the past, voters have frequently photographed their election cards as proof of receipt of payment for voting for a suitable candidate[23]. There was besides a bribe effort this year. In late February 2023, a associate of the Chinaere Igwe home of Representatives was arrested on suspicion of money laundering. A stack of money was found in his car, worth a full of $498,100, and a list of people to whom he was to pass it on.[24].

Unlike erstwhile elections, each of the 18 presidential candidates this year signed an agreement requiring political parties, candidates and their supporters to express their discontent with the results legally and in accordance with the constitution, while avoiding violence. This was intended to guarantee that free, fair and fair elections were held and to avoid social unrest after the results were announced. Nigerian army and police besides declared safety during elections[25].

Parliamentary elections

On 25 February 2023, elections to the National Assembly were held with the presidential election. The National Assembly in Nigeria is simply a bicameral national parliament composed of the home of Representatives and the Senate. Both chambers are elected for 4 years. The first 1 counts 360 members[26]and the second consists of 109 Senators[27]. Both chambers are elected in single-mandate constituency, utilizing majority ordination. The fundamental difference between chambers lies in the different way in which mandates are allocated between the different states of Nigeria. In the home of Representatives the size of the state delegation shall be determined in proportion to its population. In turn in the legislature each state has 3 representatives, regardless of its size. Additionally, 1 senator is elected in the national (capital) district[28]. This year's parliamentary elections were attended by 18 political parties, with 1101 legislature candidates and 3122 home of Representatives candidates.[29]. Results were announced on 7 March 2023. 8 parties entered the home of Representatives and 7 into the Senate[30]. These were:

1. All Progressives Congress, APC – is simply a organization formed on 6 February 2013 as a combination of the largest opposition parties in Nigeria: Action legislature of Nigeria, All Progressives Grand Alliance (fraction), All Nigeria Peoples organization and legislature for Progressive Change. The organization came to power after winning their candidate – Muhammad Buhari – in the 2015 presidential election. Its office are in the capital of Nigeria – Abuja. In economical matters, APC is simply a organization widely regarded as conducive to a market-based economical policy. On social issues, the organization advocates social democracy and anticlassicalism. APC president is Abdullahi Adamu[31].
2. People’s Democratic Party, PDP – 1 of the 2 major political parties operating in Nigeria alongside the APC, founded in 1998. PDP has a neoliberal position in its economical policy and maintains a conservative position on any social issues, specified as the same-sex relations, usually citing arguments of morality and religion[32]. On economical issues, it advocates a free marketplace policy supporting economical liberalism and limited government regulations. organization president is Umar Illiya[33].
3. Labour Party, LP – Nigerian social democratic political party. It was formed in 2002 as the organization for Social Democracy (PSD), and a year later it was renamed Labour organization (LP). The LP aims to advance and defend social democratic principles and ideals for achieving social justice, advancement and unity. The group enjoys a greater interest in the younger part of Nigerian society. The president of the LP is Julius Aure[34].
4. New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP – information on this batch is very limited. At the time of announcing the results of the 2023 election, INEC reported that the NNPP organization had received 1,496,687 votes, and its typical was Rabiu Kwanwastino. In addition, its political position has been defined as syncretic or alleged catch-all. This means that the organization combines elements of both the left and the right[35]. Political ideology has not been defined.
5. Social Democratic Party, SDP – centre-left political party, formed in December 1989 with The National Republican Convention (NPC) by erstwhile president Ibrahim Babangida as part of the project[36] democratic[37].
6. The Young Progressive Party, YPP – Social Democratic political party, competitor for APC and PDP. Initially acting as a political association since 2016. A year later, on June 7, after gathering all formal requirements, she officially became a political party[38].
7. All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA – Nigerian opposition organization formed in 2003 The same year, she took part in the parliamentary elections and won 1.4 percent of the votes and 2 out of 360 seats in the home of Representatives, but no seats in the Senate. As part of the ideology of the organization defined in the manifesto, federalism, pluralism, panafricanism, nationalism and progressiveism can be distinguished.[39].
8. African Democratic Congress, ADC – Nigerian political organization formed in 2005, initially under the name Alliance for Democratic Change (ADC). The organization in its manifesto advocates strong state power and improving the surviving conditions of all Nigerians. organization president since 2022 is Ralph Nwosu[40].

Senate (109 seats)

Figure 1. Wheel illustration with distribution of seats in the Senate, own survey based on: FULL LIST: INEC releases names of 109 senators-elect, ‘Vanguard’, 7.03.2023, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/03/full-list-inec-releases-names-of-109-senators-elect/, 18.03.2023.

IRepresentative (360 seats)

Chart 2. Wheel illustration with a breakdown of seats in the home of Representatives, own survey based on: E. Taiwo, FULL LIST: INEC releases names of 358 Reps-elect members, ‘Vanguard’, 7.03.2023, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/03/full-list-inec-releases-names-of-358-reps-elect-members/, 18.03.2023.

Governor's election

The governor's election was held on 18 March 2023. It was originally scheduled to be carried out a week earlier, but on 9 March INEC issued an authoritative message announcing the change of deadline[41]. The election was held in 28 of 36 states. It was attended by 400 candidates from 4 parties. Results, announced on 23 March 2023.[42], as follows:

1. APC won in 16 states,
2. PDP won in 10 states,
3. NNPP won in the state of Kano (1,019,602 votes),
4. LP won in the state of Abia (175 464 votes)[43].

In 8 states, the gubernatorial elections will take place at another time:

• Ekiti: The gubernatorial election was held in June 2022. The next circular of elections will not take place until the end of the four-year word of the current governor.
• Ossun: As in Ekti, the gubernatorial elections were held in July 2022. The next 1 is scheduled for 2026.
• Bayelsa: Elections will take place on 11 November 2023. This has to do with the hold of the court ruling and the appointment of the current politician in November 2019.
• Edo: The gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in September 2024, as the current gubernator was re-elected on 19 September 2020.
• Imo: In 2019, the court ruling disqualified the winner of the election there – Emeka Ihedioh. In his place, Hope Uzodinma was appointed as politician in 2020. The next election was scheduled for late 2023.
• Kogi: As in the states of Imo and Bayels, the gubernatorial elections will take place in November 2023.
• Anambra: Elections for politician in Anambra were held on 6 November 2021. Another will be carried out in November 2025.
• Ondo: The current politician of Rotimi Akeredol was re-elected 3 years ago. The re-election for politician will take place in October 2024.[44]

Summary

The Nigerian elections ran in a peaceful atmosphere, which is simply a affirmative aspect of this democratic process. Nigeria's National Election Commission (INEC) had a advanced budget, which allowed for the smooth implementation of both presidential, parliamentary and gubernatorial elections.

It is worth noting that proven BVAS technology has been used, which has seen a advanced percent of functionality, contributing to greater transparency and fairness of choices. Furthermore, the signed agreement required political parties, candidates and their supporters to express their discontent with the results legally and in accordance with the Constitution, while avoiding violence.

However, the elections faced respective negative aspects. Electoral turnout was below 30%, which is simply a worrying phenomenon and can show limited assurance or apathy among Nigerian people. There have besides been reports of firearms incidents in any of the polling stations, which highlights the existing challenges of ensuring full safety during the electoral process.

Currently, Nigerians are besides facing negative aspects specified as attempts at electoral fraud and the alleged cash crisis. Cases of attempts to manipulate election results pose a serious threat to the democratic process and require effective action to combat them. Moreover, the cash crisis means financial difficulties and shortcomings in access to payment appropriations, which have a negative impact on Nigerian regular lives.

In summary, the Nigerian elections were held in a peaceful atmosphere, utilizing advanced technology, and the signed agreement aimed at ensuring the integrity of the electoral process. However, low attendance, weapons incidents and the challenges of attempts at electoral fraud and the cash crisis are current challenges that must be addressed effectively for the further improvement of democracy in Nigeria.

[1] The results were usually published after 2 to 3 days. This year it was only done after 5 days – 1 March, around 3 a.m.

[2] C. Macaulay, Nigeria elections 2023: What you request to know, ‘BBC’, 26.02.2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64187170, 26.02.2023.

[3] N. Orjinmo, J. Winter, Nigeria election results 2023: Bola Tinubu takes strong lead over Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, ‘BBC’, 1.03.2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64805024,3.03.2023.

[4] Bola Tinbu was well rated as politician of Lagos State. He frequently utilized this argument during talks on the air. However, he is being prosecuted for taxation evasion. Moreover, the FBI besides became curious in his person, suspecting him of laundering drug smuggling money. The case ended with a fine of $450,000. Cf. B. Akinloye, We don’t have criminal case against Atiku – US, ‘Punchng’, 20.11.2016, https://punchng.com/dont-criminal-case-atiku-us/, 16.02.2023.

[5] In Hausa (used in respective African countries, including Nigeria, Niger and others), the word ‘jagaban’ means leader; Jagaban‘Nigeriandictionary’, https://nigeriandictionary.com/jagaban, 1.03.2023.

[6] The president Bola Tinubu – the 'godfather' who has been court in as Nigeria’s president, ‘BBC’, 29.05.2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-61732548, 31.05.2023.

[7] The president Nigeria election 2023: Who are the presidential candidates?, ‘DW’, 24.02.2023, https://www.dw.com/en/nigeria-election-2023-who-are-the-presidential-candidates/a-64766561, 2.03.2023.

[8] J. Bwala, E. Ogao, M. Winsor, Nigeria presidential election 2023: Who are the main candidates and what are the key issues?, ‘ABCNews’, 25.01.2023, https://abcnews.go.com/International/nigeria-presidential-election-2023-main-candidates-key-issues/story?id=97411314, 3.03.2023.

[9] The institution is besides well funded. This year's election was allocated $2 billion to cover costs related to election, vote counting and INEC operation; I. Hassan, A. Obe, Nigeria: Trust and turnoutdefine 2023 elections, ‘Chathamhouse’, 31.03.2023,https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/nigeria-trust-and-turnout-define-2023-elections, 6.05.2023.

[10]Elections in Nigeria: 2023 General Elections, ‘IFES’, https://www.ifes.org/tools-resources/election-snapshots/elections-nigeria-2023-general-elections, 1.03.2023.

[11] H. Mohamed, E. Melimopoulos, V. Pietromarchi, Nigeria 2023 election: Bola Tinubu declared winer, ‘Al Jazeera’, 1.03.2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/3/1/nigeria-election-results-live-tinubu-declared-winner, 4.03.2023.

[12] I. Hassan, A. Obe, Nigeria: Trust and turnout...

[13] The president How will voting be conducted in Nigeria?, “QZ”, 24.02.2023, https://qz.com/how-will-voting-be-conducted-in-nigeria-1850153932, 2.03.2023.

[14] The president Nigeria election results 2023: Opposition PDP and Labour organization access APC and Inec, ‘BBC’, 27.02.2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64783411, 28.02.2023.

[15] W. Musa, Despite glitches, YIAGA Africa scores BVAS over 80%, ‘The Guardian’, 26.02.2023, https://guardian.ng/news/despite-glitches-yiaga-africa-scores-bvas-over-80/, 2.03.2023.

[16]What to Know About Nigeria’s Election, ‘VOA News’, 25.02.2023, https://www.voanews.com/a/what-to-know-about-nigeria-s-election/6978758.html, 10.03.2023.

[17] The president Voting guide to Nigerians: How BVAS works, ‘Vanguardngr’, 25.02.2023, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/02/voting-guide-to-nigerians-how-bvas-works/, 1.03.2023.

[18]How to poll 93 million voters – the challenge of pulling off Nigeria’s presidential elections, ‘The Conversation’, 16.02.2023, https://theconversation.com/how-to-poll-93-million-voters-the-challenge-of-pulling-off-nigerias-presidential-elections-199761, 23.02.2023.

[19] S. Busari, N. Princewill, B. Feleke, L. Madowo, J. Yeung, Opposition vows challenge as Tinubu wins Nigerian president, 2.03.2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/28/africa/nigeria-presidential-election-result-intl-hnk/index.html, 8.03.2023.

[20] Ibid.

[21] It is worth noting that around 40% of Nigerians do not have bank accounts, so erstwhile buying basic products they trust on cash.

[22] J. Bwala, E. Ogao, M. Winsor, Nigeria presidential election 2023...

[23]What to Know About Nigeria's Election...

[24] C. Macaulay, Chinaere Igwe: Nigerian political arrested with $500,000 on election eve, ‘BBC’, 24.02.2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64756612, 27.02.2023.

[25] The president Presidential candidates sign peace place before Nigeria election, ‘Al Jazeera’, 23.02.2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/23/presidential-candidates-sign-peace-pact-72hrs-to-nigeria-election, 26.02.2023.

[26] Nigeria home of Representatives, "Archive IPU", http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2363_B.htm, 18.03.2023.

[27] Nigeria Senate, ‘Archive IPU’, http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2364_A.htm, 18.03.2023.

[28] Constitution of the national Republic of Nigeria 1999, "Nigeria Law", http://www.nigeria-law.org/ConstitutionOfTheFederalRepublicOfNigeria.htm#Elections_to_NatAss, 2.02.2023.

[29]How to poll 93 million voters...

[30]Elections in Nigeria: 2023 General...

[31]All Progressives legislature (APC), “APC”, https://apc.com.ng/about.php, 28.02.2023.

[32] In 2007, the PDP-dominated National Assembly backed a bill prohibiting all forms of homosexual relations, according to which the punishment for this would be up to 14 years in prison; Nigeria moves to Tighten Gay Laws, ‘BBC News’, 14.02.2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6362505.stm, 9.4.2023.

[33]Peoples Democratic organization (PDP), ‘Peoples Democratic Party’, https://peoplesdemocraticparty.com.ng/how-it-all-started/, 8.03.2023.

[34]Party Ideology, ‘Labour Party’, https://labourparty.com.ng/party-ideology/, 8.03.2023.

[35]Nigeria presidential election results 2023 by the numbers‘Al Jazeera’, 28.02.2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/28/nigeria-presidential-election-results-2023, 3.03.2023.

[36] It aimed to make 2 recruited political parties – 1 somewhat left and the another right; Falae, Shonibare, others re-launch SDP, ‘Vanguard’, 8.03.2014, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/falae-shonibare-others-re-launch-sdp/, 15.03.2023.

[37] Ibid.

[38]In conversation with Kingsley Moghalu: Nigeria’s first technocrat President?, ‘Stears’, 21.01.2019, https://www.stears.co/article/in-conversation-with-kingsley-moghalu-nigerias-next-technocrat-president/,18.03.2023.

[39]Manifesto of All Progressive Grand Alliance, ‘INEC Nigeria’, 6.05.2018, https://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/APGA-Manifesto.pdf, 16.03.2023.

[40]Our Manifesto, ‘ADC’, https://adc.org.ng/our-manifesto, 17.03.2023.

[41] The president FULL TEXT: Why INEC Postponed Governorship Elections, ‘FIJ’, 9.03.2023, https://fij.ng/article/full-text-why-inec-postponed-governorship-elections/, 3.04.2023.

[42] B. Ikiebe, Government Election: Results Of 26 States, ‘VON’, 23.03.2023, https://von.gov.ng/governorship-election-results-of-26-states/, 15.04.2023.

[43]2023 Governoral Results, ‘Liveresults Civichive’, https://liveresults.civichive.org/gubernatorial/2023, 16.03.2023.

[44] Oh. Lawal, Why 2023 Governorship Election Will Be Held in Only 28 States, ‘FIJ’, 11.03.2023, https://fij.ng/article/why-2023-governorship-election-will-be-held-in-only-28-states/, 15.04.2023.