The MIK, i.e. the Monthly Conjunction Index in May decreased by 4.3 points compared to April to 98.6 points.
This is the first reading below the neutral level (100.0 points), which means the advantage of negative moods over affirmative sentiments among entrepreneurs – informs the Polish economical Institute. At the same time, it should be noted that the crucial decrease in m/m of MIK is due to a comparison to the highest level in this year observed in April (102.9 points).
The current MIK by 1.8 points higher than the lowest MIK value since 2024 recorded in July
The current MIK is 2.6 points lower than last year's May reading (101.2 points), but 1.8 points higher than the lowest MIK value since 2024 recorded in July (96.8 points).
As noted by pastry with the May level of MICs below the neutral value (100.0 points) the advantage of negative estimates of entrepreneurs for 5 of the 7 components surveyed: sales, fresh orders, employment, production capacity and investments.
Mood decline occurred mainly among tiny and medium-sized companies
In the May MIC measurement, negative moods prevail over affirmative ones among tiny (89 points), micro- (90,8 points) and medium-sized enterprises (93,6 points). Only a group of large companies recorded a score above neutral level (111.0 points), which means a affirmative temper advantage. Regardless of the size of the company, the largest decrease in the MIK value was recorded among medium-sized companies (by 9.7 points).
The continuing advanced level of MIK among large companies, despite a decline of 4.5 points in m/m, is the consequence of, inter alia, a affirmative self-assessment of financial liquidity. 78 percent of the surveyed large companies declare to have financial resources to enable the operation of more than 3 months. The fall in MIK values for medium-sized companies is mainly due to low level of investment. Moreover, more than twice as many medium-sized enterprises declared a decrease in sales value and the number of fresh orders than in the erstwhile reading (32 percent vs. 15%, 29 percent vs. 11% respectively).
Almost all 3rd micro-entrepreneur (32%) declared a decrease in m/m sales value
The lowest level of MIK since early 2025 was recorded among tiny companies. The main causes are the low level of investment (72 percent of non-investment firms in the last 3 months) and the clear advantage of companies with a decrease in the number of fresh orders over those declared to grow (27% vs. 11%). MIK for microcompanies remains below the neutral level, which is related, among others, to low investment activity – only 26 percent of entrepreneurs declare investments. Almost 1 in 3 micro-entrepreneurs (32%) declared a decrease in m/m sales value and a 26 percent decrease in the number of fresh orders.
– After 5 months of comparatively good results, the May reading of the Monthly Index of Koniunktu amazed the decline below the neutral level, signaling a deterioration of economical economic economical performance among entrepreneurs. However, the image is not unequivocally negative and varies according to the manufacture and size of companies. The manufacturing sector and services are inactive in comparatively good condition, while we see a clear weakening in transport, construction and commercial companies. The decline in moods is peculiarly evident in the section of tiny and medium-sized enterprises, while large companies do not study crucial changes compared to the erstwhile month. The deterioration of the May consequence should be interpreted in the context of the advanced reading in April, due to the fact that we are dealing with the effect of the advanced base. Last month, companies reported a crucial increase in sales, which positively affected their assessment of the financial situation. According to the company's declaration, sales dynamics did not proceed in May, and the number of fresh orders decreased, which translates into a more cautious forecast for June – notes Dr. Katarzyna Dębkowska, head of the pastry foresight economical team.
Companies are alternatively pessimistic about the economical future of the country
At the beginning of May, more than half of companies (54%) believe that their economical situation will neither improve nor worsen in the next 3 months. The improvement is expected to be 23 percent (decrease of m/m by 8 percent points) and the deterioration of 17 percent (increase of m/m by 3 percent points). As far as the economical situation of the country is concerned, more companies foresee a deterioration of the country (25%) than an improvement (18%). Companies, regardless of size, see their future economical situation somewhat better than the country's economical situation. However, compared to April, the percent of companies that number on improving their situation in the next 3 months is somewhat decreasing. This is most evident among tiny companies. In April, as much as 41 percent of tiny companies indicated that their situation would improve in the next 3 months. In May, there are only 25% of specified indications.
Still, regardless of size and manufacture (except trade), companies are more likely to anticipate a deterioration than to improve the economical situation of the country. However, the percent of companies expected to deteriorate falls. In April, as much as 34% of medium-sized companies pointed to a deterioration in the economical situation of the country in the next 3 months, in May only 25% already believe so. Similarly, a period ago, 36% of micro-enterprises predicted a deterioration in the economical situation of the country, and in May 24% felt so.
In the second 4th of this year we observe large-scale global turbulence
– The fall of the MIC may be the consequence of increasing economical uncertainty and a tense geopolitical situation. In the second 4th of this year, we observe large-scale global turbulence, including trade tensions between the US and China and the European Union, related, among others, to the introduction of American customs, as well as the collapse of talks on the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine line on the end of the war in Ukraine. These factors may have negatively affected the perception of stableness and the tendency to make investment decisions," added Katarzyna Dębkowska.
