Krystian Kamiński – geopolitical analysis.
East and South-East Asia became the most crucial region in the world. This message already has the rank of banal even in Poland, although I must admit with embarrassment that this fact reached the mainstream of Polish politicians, journalists, publicists and even alleged experts, especially for a long time. I have already written many times about the causes of this very rank of the region – its scale of the population and economical significance. East and South-East Asia remains the mill of the world. Even if any of these countries – outside Japan, China and South Korea – inactive stay mainly the locations of the simple products industry. The current tensions have overturned all these post-modern progressive theories, seeing signs of improvement in disposing of this kind of industry, leaving only selected links to the most innovative production chains, transition to a "service economy", digital finance.
The war in Ukraine has made us aware that GDP driven by electronic operations of financial tycoons, pension funds, or further services of the amusement industry, is not straight proportional to the power and efficiency of the state. In fact, as primitive as the extrusion of basic artillery shells or basic chemical components of simple medicines is inactive of large importance. Therefore, the Asian “factory of the world” is of large importance today.
Despite Donald Trump's start in spring 2018 of the customs war with China, the U.S. has so far failed to break most production chains, although they slow down investment and cooperation in the most innovative sectors of the electronic, digital industry. fresh information shows, however, that Americans are moving on to tougher, more direct actions. The “World Factory” is increasingly becoming a region for the clash of 2 global superpowers.
Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwanese Minister of Defense, acknowledged on March 19 that the Americans are conducting training his forces on the Kinmen Islands. The importance of this movement is 2 facts. Controlled by Taipei islands are located very close to the continental territory controlled by the People's Republic of China, just 4 kilometres from the crucial Chinese port town of Xiamen. Opponents, including personally Americans, almost virtually look each another in the eye.
In the first half of March, Taiwanese media provided unofficial information that the Americans had established a permanent base on Kinmen. This is simply a crucial escalation step. With the designation of the PRC as typical of the Chinese statehood in 1972 and its acceptance to the UN, The Americans began to retreat their forces, in the decade of the 1960s going into thousands of soldiers, accompanied by atomic weapons on the island. In 1979, the last U.S. Armed Forces base in Taiwan was closed.
The return of the American military to the island enabled the National defence Authority Act (NDAA) for the next financial year. According to Taiwanese media, the U.S. ‘military advisers’ began to station permanently in military bases on Kinmen, but besides Pescadors, an archipelago controlled by the authorities in Taipei, any 50 km west of Taiwan towards the coast of the PRC. In these 2 bases, soldiers of the 1st United States peculiar Forces Group are to be stationed permanently, where they train soldiers of 101. The Infantry Battalion of the Armed Forces of Taiwan, or elite Marine Force. In the northern part of the island, American soldiers train locals to operate drones intended for the Air-Desant peculiar Forces Company of the mentioned battalion.
Xiamen serves as the office of the 73rd Group of the Army of the People's Liberation Army of China, 1 of the 3 groups of the ChALW armies, under the command of the east Theatre, liable for defending the PRC from the sea side. It can be considered that the Americans will usage a base just a fewer kilometres from the city and port to make reconnaissance activities. In 2021, the then president of the authorities in Taipei Tsai Ing-wen confirmed that American peculiar forces were training under her military force, but there was no mention of their permanent presence. The U.S. Department of defence officially confirmed the presence of 30 American soldiers, but only to defend the American Institute in Taiwan, or unofficial U.S. representation in Taipei. It seems that these authoritative statements do not describe reality. Taiwanese media, by the way, claimed that the Americans are planning to further grow the US peculiar Forces Operation Liaison component (SOFLE) program on the Asian island.
AMERICA FOR TEACHING
East and South-East Asia became the most crucial region in the world. This message already has the rank of banal even in Poland, although I must admit with embarrassment that this fact reached the mainstream of Polish politicians, journalists,... pic.twitter.com/FiR9vqqX26
The U.S. legislature besides left a gateway open to expanding the presence of civilian officials on the island, which would possibly be an even more escalational action, as it can be read in Beijing as a step not only for the political but besides formal-legal empowerment of Taiwan. Local radicals are trying to catch the possibility. On 19 March, in the Czech Republic, she hosted the vice-elect of authorities in Taipei Hsiao Bi-khim with a trend of independence-Separatist Democratic Progressive Party. Hsiao was a typical of the Taiwanese authorities in Washington. She moved there as a teenager, where she graduated from advanced school and college. For example, she is simply a strong supporter of the LGBT agenda. It is subject to the sanctions of the PRC.
Thus, the US returns to the cold-war relations with the PRC from the time erstwhile it was treated as part of an enemy communist camp, which reconciles not so much with business as with the existence of their own strategy and state. Given Kinmen's place on the map, it seems that we will gotta deal not so much with the strategy of “holding back” as with “repulsion”, suffocating China.
Washington escalates tensions, recognising most likely that the escalation of the conflict will lead to a faster and stronger polarization of the full region, a clear selection by the east and South-East Asian countries of 1 of the parties, which most of them are now eager to avoid... Like any elites in Taiwan. Especially in the Kuomintang party, but besides in the business spheres, there are not shortages of environments that avoid confrontational movements against the PRC. Americans are besides seeking to limit their maneuvering field.
It can be considered that specified an American strategy contains a large degree of tolerance for the option of turning it into an open war. In particular, in situations where time works more in favour of the PRC, as long as they are able to proceed to transform their economy.
