The U.S. indexes have followed another increasing month. The second half of the year on stock markets may be nervous

July is usually a affirmative period in stock markets and this year was no exception. The American indexes ended it on the plus side, as did most Europeans. However, Old Continent markets no longer attract capital with the same strength as in the first part of the year. On the another hand, ocean valuations after subsequent records are already very high, and the impact of the fresh customs order imposed by Donald Trump – so far hard to predict. More volatility and nervousness can be expected in the markets in the close future, but as long as the companies show good results, there are no conditions for changing the trend to decline.

Since the beginning of 2025, the broad S&P 500 marketplace index has gained 7.8%, and the Nasdaq technology has increased even more. This was not a homogenous increase: in February, March and April, American indexes were down and global capital was much more likely to choose European parquet floors. The most tense period turned out to be April, erstwhile Trump's "day of liberation" proved to be at the same time a powerful impulse to sell. After this breakdown, however, there was a reflection, in awesome style.

As a result, both Nasdaq and S&P 500 broke respective records of all time, including the last week of July. August began with declines due to macroeconomic data: little than the expected number of fresh jobs in the non-agricultural sector, and above all the largest revision of the readings for erstwhile months caused the moods of investors, and the American president pushed the dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics, which collects and counts these data. However, the next session turned out to be an increase.

– July was another growth month, indexes set fresh records, so alternatively investors will put that period into successful ones. Although it can already be seen that this difference, especially very visible at the beginning of the year in favour of Europe, is disappearing and, of course, investors are wondering whether it is simply a permanent change or just a stop, due to the fact that since the beginning of the year European indices have been doing better than the American ones – says news agency Tomasz Korab, CEO of EQUES Investment TFI.

Investors ask themselves how long the American marketplace can go up. After 2 twenty-five percent increases in the valuation of U.S. companies, they reached very advanced levels of 22–23 for the price-to-profit ratio at a multi-annual average of 17. However, profits reported by companies are inactive increasing. Of the companies that have already reported results for the second quarter, 70 percent showed profits better than expectations. There was a forecast that and 2025 could bring more than 20-percent increases in American indices.

– We are after a very large series of increases, after evidence valuations, after comparatively advanced indices and very advanced economical uncertainty, which is why I think there will be quite a few nervousness in the markets – provides the CEO of EQUES Investment TFI. – If valuations are high, this usually means advanced expectations of investors. If they are not fulfilled, the punishment is very severe, that is, investors show their disappointment, retreat capital and fall down we have dynamic. After a series of long increases, very advanced evidence valuations tend to vary greatly. That's why we saw these temper changes, even this year. Liberation A day of immense declines, then a fast rebound, hence investors should show considerable opposition to stress.

The temper of investors is surely affected by the situation in global trade. On 27 July, president Donald Trump and president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced an agreement between the US and the EU on tariffs on imported products. It has been assessed as a failure of European negotiators. Its essential provisions are 15 % duties on most of the goods exported from the EU to the US, including cars and their parts and medicines and semiconductors. A higher level of 50% is expected to be charged for imports into the United States of steel and aluminium. In addition, European companies have undertaken to acquisition energy natural materials from the US worth $750 billion, increase investment in the US marketplace by $600 billion and acquisition American military equipment.

– As far as the consequence to duties is concerned, it can be said that markets and investors have had enough. Since April, there have been so many changes in rates and rules that the marketplace is already tired of these changes. However, as regards the agreement between the European Union and the United States, this is the most crucial agreement, due to the fact that the European Union and the United States together are 43% of the planet economy and 30% of planet trade, so this agreement regulates a crucial part of the planet economy - recalls Tomasz Korab. – By most analysts, and the market, too, it was perceived as negative for the European Union, but the consequence was alternatively moderate, we observed tiny declines in the stock markets in Europe and tiny increases in the United States.

Many analysts and economists besides point out that the settlement omits the large surplus in services that the United States has recorded in trade with the European Union.

– The attention of investors in the coming months will, in our opinion, proceed to focus on macroeconomic data, due to the fact that it is very hard to estimation the final impact of all agreements that are being concluded on an ongoing basis – assesses Tomasz Korab. – This map of the flow of goods, supply chains and trade is inactive being created, and is inactive hampered by short-term reactions, due to the fact that investors, expecting customs, increase and decrease stocks. These macroeconomic data will only decline after a period of confusion and, on this basis, analysts and investors will effort to figure out what the long-term impact of this fresh order in planet trade will be on individual economies, on the prospects of companies operating in these economies, and so on stock rates and another financial instruments.

For: newseria.pl