The alleged Trump plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian War

On 22 April evening, Volodymyr Zelenski described the elements of the alleged Trump Plan appearing in the Western media as "proposals, ideas, signals" and stated that this was not a "official proposal for Ukraine". To specified – if presented – Kiev “will respond immediately and make it known.” The president besides expressed his readiness to have peace talks with Russia "in any format" after the ceasefire.

Zelenski thus referred to articles in the "The Wall Street Journal", "Financial Times" and "Axios", which on the basis of talks with anonymous diplomats reconstructed an alleged American proposal for Ukraine and Russia (see Annex). It was to be presented at a gathering with representatives of France, large Britain, Germany (format E3) and Ukraine on 17 April in Paris by a US delegation composed of: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, peculiar Envoy for the mediate East Steve Witkoff and president of Ukraine MP Keith Kellogg.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Pieskov described media reports of Russia's alleged consent to frost the conflict on the current front line as Facebook. He added that the Kremlin does not know the content of the "Trump plan", and the negotiations are complicated and that their fast results should not be expected. Moscow besides confirmed the announcement of Witkoff's visit to Russia in the coming days.

Comment

• For Ukraine, the designation of the de jure Russian annexation of Crimea is unacceptable, and it would only be possible to renounce the aspirations for NATO membership, already approved by Zelenski, in exchange for another credible safety guarantees. It seems that for a full ceasefire of Kiev would be willing to accept Russia's temporary business of the presently controlled territories of Ukraine, as well as to hand over to the U.S. board the recovered Zaporoska atomic Power Plant.
• For Russia, it is crucial to prolong talks and usage the rush of the American administration to origin maximum consideration of Kremlin demands (see. Capitalisation of Ukraine, European finlandisation: threats and “offer” of Russia). Moscow most likely wants to lead to the rejection of Washington's proposal by Kiev to hold him liable for the failure of talks and to origin a complete halt to American aid to Ukraine. At the same time, he wishes to convince Donald Trump to abolish sanctions and to implement ambitious economical cooperation projects with Russia independently of the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.
• For the United States, the most crucial thing is to settle negotiations by 30 April, on Trump's 100th day of presidency. The acceptance of the peace proposal by Russia and Ukraine would let him to deliver on his electoral promise and win internationally. The rejection may give the United States an excuse to retreat completely from the negotiation process and to end financial and military assistance to Kiev (further support of Ukraine, among others, in the field of intelligence and exploratory data, remains an open matter). The absence of Rubia and Witkoff at the Paris gathering in London on 23 April is an effort to exert force on Kiev by legitimizing the threat of giving up the deal.

Annex. Elements of the alleged Trump plan according to media leaks

Russia gains:

• recognition of de jure of Russian control over Crimea,
• recognition of de facto business of parts of the circuits: Donetsk, Lugansk, Khersonsk and Zaporosk,
• Ukraine's failure to join NATO (this country can integrate into the EU),
• the abolition of sanctions imposed since 2014,
• Economic cooperation with the US, peculiarly in the energy and industrial sectors.

Ukraine gains:

• security guarantees from selected European countries (without details),
• return of a tiny occupied part of the Kharkiv region,
• freedom of navigation on the Dnieper,
• compensation and recovery aid,
• The Dam atomic Power Plant, but on the board of the United States, producing energy for needs and Ukraine, and Russia.