According to the study, the highest support was obtained by the Law and Justice – 28.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percent points compared to the erstwhile WP survey. The second place included the Civic Coalition with a consequence of 25.6 percent – this is simply a decrease of 7.4 percent points.
The 3rd place was taken by the Confederation, gaining 15% of support (a decrease of 1 percent point). The left gained 6.6% of support, which means a tiny increase compared to the erstwhile survey – by 0.6 percent points.
The full organization won 5 percent of the votes, thereby having a decrease of 0.2 percent points compared to the erstwhile poll. Below the electoral threshold are:
Poland 2050 – 4.4 percent.
PSL – 4.1proc.
Confederation of the Polish Crown – 3.9 percent.
In the erstwhile poll Poland 2050 and PSL were present as a 3rd Road coalition that was solved, so it is impossible to compare the current results of these parties with erstwhile ones. The Confederation of the Polish Crown was not previously included in the study. 7.1% of respondents could not identify who they would vote for.
The fresh poll is an alarm for KO. There has been a decline in support
If elections were held next Sunday, the allocation of seats in the Sejm would be as follows:
Law and Justice – 177 mandates
Civil Coalition – 158 mandates
Confederation – 84 mandates
Left – 26 seats
Total – 14 mandates
The current ruling coalition (KO, Left), without the 3rd Way, with the hypothetical participation of the organization Together could number on 198 mandates, which does not let the creation of the government itself. The majority in the Sejm are 231 fines.
In turn, a possible coalition of the PiS and the Confederacy would get 261 seats, which would give it a majority.
– This negative reflection, which present results in a decline of almost 8 percent points of the civilian Coalition, is simply a show that people understood that the civilian Coalition has the face of Roman Giertych. And in fact, what has happened in fresh weeks - this hysteria connected with the alleged falsification of the presidential election - has shown that there is no origin on the side of this top coalition factor, which is the PO," said Prof. Łukasz Młyńczyk, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw.
According to Mill, even part of the permanent electorate of KO may be afraid about the direction of the party. It besides points to the increasing importance of the Confederacy among right-wing voters: "It shows that the right-wing mostly weighs much more in Poland".
The survey was conducted by United Surveys commissioned by Virtual Poland on 27–29 June 2025 on a typical example of 1,000 people.
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