Thinking about the future, it is worth facing how it was predicted in the past. As part of the fresh Year's Summary and Prediction ritual, I decided to face my own expectations and concerns a year ago. In retrospect, it is easier to realize what was wishful reasoning and what was fear of growth. I so search notes from the beginning of this parliamentary term, from October 2023 to January 2024. For inspiration, I'd like to thank my friends at the listening podcast.
It is only from the position of years that historical events seem clear and obvious. regular political chaos turns into elegant dates with an appropriate entry in the manual. This is besides the case now, the “sejmix”, the exposé of 2 prime ministers: the painted and real, government nominations, Kaczyński, who would have been sympathetic with his defilement if he had not been so harmful, greeted by “the happiness of God” MP Braun destroying the spiritual symbols of the old Testamentation of the chosen nation, the upcoming wave of resignations in the PiS institutions, Tusk's first abroad visit competing for our attention.
The delayed triumph that president Duda founded for the fresh coalition only now has a chance to materialize. It's easy to lose a sense of proportion and meaning in the media noise. It is hard to separate what is permanent and fundamental from the one-day news, elusive events from those that will grow over time to the rank of the symbol. We are participants in a political breakthrough, and in order to realize its essence, 1 should effort to look at it from any distance.
Extraordinary election mobilization has given triumph to anti-PiSu forces. The deficiency of knowing of its causes was the origin of Kaczyński's defeat. The bet on her was for Tusk's success. To this day, the social reception remains unexplained.
The formation of coalitions, and in a minute the government, is business as usual – division of positions, negotiations – with a full list of topics to be postponed. Thousands of Poles and Poles engaged in civic campaigns and actions become again with participants. In all triumph there are already seeds of future defeat. This large civic army was dissolved into the barracks.
If the fresh power considers exceptional civic mobilization a permanent phenomenon, it will gotta swallow the bitterness of future failures. If the consequence of her regulation is only to change the organization vector alternatively than the Copernican coup of the model of operation, with the primary rule of meritocracy and broad social participation, the fresh power will rapidly divide the destiny of the old. That is the brutal right of democracy.
Ménage a trois
Polish policy is set in a triangle of social expectations, organization constraints and political conflict.
The eventual goal not only for the fresh ruling coalition, but the fundamental rationale of the state in Poland is to prevent the power that will be able to destruct interior democratic mechanisms like Viktor Orban in Hungary. That's PiS in its present form.
Political constraints mean that conflict is not about the substance of change, but about its legitimacy. As in 2015, many voters wipe their eyes and feel surprise, humiliation and powerlessness. This time they are PiS voters. If the shuttle is not to thin back towards them again, it is essential to “screw the pack”. guarantee that the Law and Justice in its anti-systemic form will never take power again. What will only intensify the fierce confrontation with PiS in each field and fuel the political conflict.
The primary challenge for the fresh coalition is survival. It's banal, but very demanding. Double elections – local government and European during the next six months do not facilitate the task: before cooperation relations have been established, we must compete – and this time not only rhetorically – but practically, by means of laws, the distribution of funds. “We would like to, but the coalition”, “money must be found” – it is hard to build a squad game if the individual score is at the end – and the organization leaders will be accounted for.
The calendar is against substantive coalition cooperation. Election time is simply a time erstwhile alternatively of quietly building projects that can then be praised, you gotta go out with a clear message to your electorates. At the same time, the deficiency of specified substantive projects, which have managed to be carried out, forces propaganda activities – and so is the spiral of interior divisions.
Tactical vote for the 3rd Road, recognition of the left with liberal moral demands, blockade at coalition level (PSL and part of Poland 2050) and president Andrzej Duda – this makes comparatively liberal demands from the campaign: bringing religion out of schools, liberalisation of the abortion bill, partnerships will go off, at most utilized for tactical purposes by individual players, at least until the presidential election.
For the left – following the rule of “tushie you go, you wake up” – keeping her extremist wing a small inside, a small out – means inevitable interior tensions. At the same time, the criticism of the government by Together will not have the force of demolition as if this organization were part of it.
The 3rd Way was more than successful – and it was well placed in 3rd place, thanks to Simon Holownia's visibility and talents. The question of how the inexperienced Poland 2050 will cope with the upcoming campaigns. They are favored by the calendar – a chance to strengthen local in seymikas and build positions in EP elections. The biggest challenge will be the club's cohesion, management and building its own identity towards KO. Especially since for Holowna the consequence in the presidential election counts, i.e. it fights for 50%+1 vote and Poland 2050 for maintaining a two-digit consequence from the parliamentary elections (together with the PSL).
Conflict with the president and the blocking of changes will have limited usefulness. Any hard improvement requires the usage of political capital, forcing an agreement or a hard compromise, which is hard erstwhile it is known that the only effect will be a veto anyway. too – de facto rather limited – the list of cases in which the coalition speaks absolutely with 1 voice, each bill will be like a conflict which must be carefully chosen before taking up.
After the first weeks, it is evident that rumors of PiSu's death are premature. In the local elections, the PiS will lose power in most Seymists, but it is likely to accomplish the highest (even if slightly) support, while the 3rd Road will be much closer to the PO than in the parliamentary elections. It is the specificity of the election to the Sejm that flattens the results of the party.
The consequence will be treated as a kind of vote of assurance towards the current government, and this time the expected triumph in the 1st circular of the presidential election of Rafał Trzaskowski in Warsaw may not be enough, especially if in Krakow or Wrocław the PO candidate does not win. Failure in the European elections will besides mean a real political crisis. At the very beginning of government.
From the point of view of the PO, it would be much safer to go in 1 block with the left and thus warrant yourself first place in the election, while at the same time making the utmost environment of the organization a marginality and gradually taking the left electorate. It would be valuable to introduce left-wing councillors to the Sejm and Members of the European Parliament. The question is whether the cost of defeat with the Law and Justice will be greater, and the benefits of consummating the left (it would be sealed by the start of Rafał Trzaskowski as president).
In the two-three years perspective, the “unification conference” within the Citizens' Coalition (a bit like what the SLD did in its time) would be a chance to get free of little interesting environments from the PO, attract fresh people, get free of possible competition, seal the progressive evolution initiated by Tusk's declaration on abortion.
The alternate is to go to a conservative bidding with the 3rd Road, which is present a centre-right competition for the PO. However, this is counterproductive from the point of view of the interest of the anti-script coalition as a whole, due to the fact that it closes the way for the construction of a meaningful territory organization representing the Polish state – and specified an offer will never be a formation with the participation of Donald Tusk.
Alternatives to major reforms are changes requiring imagination, public proceeding and precise communication. And, of course, good lawyers. The government will be forced to conduct a policy of tiny steps in the right direction. Sewing fundamental changes to seemingly insignificant regulations: interior police regulations, regulation of the Spatial Planning Act, selection of committees and rules for granting grants in discipline and culture. Suitablely framed by symbolism, the engagement of the Prime Minister and key ministers may grow to the fundamental rank – but besides beyond the simple “virtue signaling” to which the fresh left aims. High-class strategical communication will be key.
It is impossible to make decisions and then think about how to “sell” them, but already in the product, which is organization or legal change, there should be a message to the public. Coordination between the ministries, the Prime Minister's office and the communications (Government Information Centre) will be crucial.
The quote from Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz's eavesdropped conversation that “the Polish state exists theoretically” is worth quoting in its entirety: “The Polish state exists theoretically. It practically does not exist, due to the fact that it works with its individual fragments, not knowing that the state is simply a whole. Where the state acts as a whole, it has amazing efficiency. Only someway nobody wants to usage this...”
Unconstitutional state
The first challenge for the fresh coalition will be to reflect – with controversial methods – subsequent institutions at the hands of PiSu. This will be accompanied by a massive attack on the inactive very strong backdrop of the organization – in the parliament and sponsored media – it is crucial to rip out venom teeth in public media and reconstruct journalism standards in local media, including those purchased by Orlen.
The revolution will primarily concern the regulation of law. The Law and Justice has grown with the state to specified an degree that it has destroyed procedures and the legal order that its restoration of governance will not be a process based solely on codes, but requires political decisions and actions. We are facing a period of confusion and ambiguity, methods known from films in which the sheriff, in order to defeat criminals, must act on the border of law. This will be hard for many with clear rules to accept.
The social anticipation and mandate received by the fresh coalition cannot be ignored, and the process spread over years – thus takes the seriousness of the state and destroys a minute that will not happen again. At the same time, there is simply a deficiency of tools for the President's expected obstruction and the deficiency of a body capable of real researching compliance with the Basic Act. It would be a dangerous paradox to consider that the Constitution is de facto preventing the restoration of legal order. Her spirit, if not her letter, must be the most crucial guide here. First of all, the effects of these changes must be assessed: whether controversial methods reconstruct the independency of the judiciary, as the Scriptures say, “by fruits you will know them.”
The war for the recovery of further state institutions (because this is besides the de facto execution of the conviction on Wąsik and Kamiński) is not a denial, but a natural consequence of the triumph on October 15. III of the Republic of Poland then made an act of self-defense. Rejecting the parasitic model of state stubbornness and rape of the regulation of law was the most crucial democratic act after 1989. The fresh coalition has received a social mandate for far-reaching changes.
The political conflict is not about politics, but about the form of the institution, whether 8 years of Poland's dissolution of III from the centre by the Law and Justice Office will be valid and will be a permanent component of order or episode. With no tools for bodily changes, the Law and Justice was making a de facto creeping change to the Constitution. The fresh ruling coalition, with even less organization tools, tries to reverse these changes.
This contradiction: between the request to identify the legal acts in force (when the Constitutional Court is not in fact functioning) – the request to make extremist changes in the name of a democratic mandate from the sovereign and reconstruct the universally respected legal order, in the bustle of violent protests by the party, which yet gained the top support in fresh elections, will proceed to accompany the fresh coalition in the process of repairing the Republic of Poland after the PiSu rule.
Systemic tension, in which rules do not adhere to political mandate, can find democracy. The logic of the conflict means that there is no motivation to recognise the political rules of the community erstwhile it would mean a political loss. The external threat should theoretically force the logic of interaction. In Poland, even the failure of independency was not enough.
Conflicts can service power – as shown by 2 terms of PiSu, if they are conflicts won. It is uncertain whether, by operating by resolutions, without the anticipation of passing laws, the ruling coalition will be able to turn each conflict to its advantage. In contrast to PiSu, it has to deal with opinions of the legal community, independent media. The banner under which the restitution of legal standards was victorious was the restoration of legal standards. Meanwhile, most of the decisions taken as part of the institution's reconstruction after PiSe take place in the legal grey area, The Constitutional Court or the ultimate Court is the subject of a dispute, not an arbitrator.
For PiSu, the fight is about survival, fundamental credibility towards voters and consistency of their own ranks. They're not gonna put their legs distant either. The alternate is not only the opposition jury, but even the prison, and the chances of pardoning diminish with the end of Andrzej Duda's word in 2025.
The ill-prepared and legally questionable takeover of the public media PO managed to occupy the public for nearly 3 weeks with protests, chaos, to build the impression that the methods are not so different from PiSu. The knight in shining armor was very rapidly swamped. On the another hand, there was efficiency and keeping the electoral promise. The same effects could have been obtained by protracting the process, by way of salami: gradual acquisition of receipts (restore of the position quo ante in TVP, in accordance with the judgement of the Constitutional Court, appeal of the president of the National Media Council).
The defence of TVP became for PiSu what for the opposition (mostly street) the first protests after the party's illegal takeover of the Kaczynsk Constitutional Court and ignoring its judgments. Even if the deficiency of effectiveness of protests is demobilising, their symbolic importance will integrate and give fuel amazed by the failure of the right hand. The talk about the incredible propaganda of TVP went to the background – and this is the first of the successes of the fresh opposition.
The tactics won the strategy. The main goal of Polish non-PiSowska, which so massively mobilized on October 15, should be to guarantee that a organization specified as PiS in its present form will never gain power again – due to the fact that next time it may not should be returned, like Viktor Orban. Meanwhile, at the very beginning the PO gave ammunition lost by the failure of the right hand. alternatively of large sadness there was mobilization under Kaczyński's leadership.
Will settlements have adequate strength if they are seen as part of a simple political game alternatively than a process of restoring the state's gravity? The Law and Justice will surely do anything to compromise any effort to hold their officers accountable. He has tools for this, from his created ultimate Court Chambers (see judgement on Maciej Wąsik) by the Constitutional Court, the National Prosecutor, to the President, the NBP and the National Broadcasting Council.
It is evident that the usage of this power will advancement unexpectedly quickly. The enthusiasm with the election consequence has fundamentally expired. A certain political crisis around justice will deepen the feeling of instability in moderately curious voters. The coalition, busy with the budget and the tedious process of taking over the state institutions, must find within itself the ability to deliver the games.
Communication, you fool.
Contrary to the stereotypes, there is no contradiction between political PR and substantive work. On the contrary, the implementation of immense projects specified as armaments, atomic power plants or CPKs and KDPs forces communication with voters in the democratic system, explaining why specified tremendous funds will be utilized for public investment: not for another purposes.
PiS has accustomed voters that you can have a cookie and eat them. He created visions and plans for public investment beyond the limits of state resources, while giving electoral gifts to the left and right: here, lowering bills, here creating (required, though very abused) shields against Covid for business, here multiplying social spending, disrupting average incentives for request and supply on the labour market.
The economical improvement balance in fresh years is not bad – especially erstwhile considering the covid shock and then the extremist increase in defence spending and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian war refugees. At the same time, the scale of debt and government expenditure led to the triggering of the excessive deficit procedure, making the anticipation of a fresh government little likely. specified a perspective, if it is not linked to a major economical or safety crisis, erstwhile voters realize the uniqueness of the situation, must make understandable frustrations. Especially as generous, knee-written, run promises, especially an increase in the free amount, would drain even a rich budget. erstwhile demanding from the PO to invent “their 500+” 1 must remember that there are no funds for this – unless expenditure in another areas is cut.
The coalition is doomed to proceed key PiS projects. Border defence (Tarcza East), CPK, atomic power plant, armaments. There is no another anticipation on the horizon than rationalisation (i.e. the threat of losing “a wow effect”). In addition, the implementation of PiSowski's projects in the context of full political conflict and the disinflation of the governments of the PiS is subject to many threats: from deficiency of credibility to questioning the main dividing line (because since there is continuation, then possibly this policy of PiSu was not so bad).
If your own projects are besides tiny or impossible and your resignation from the PiSowskis is not an option – due to the threat of war or the essential energy transformation, 1 solution is their dewriting. This means taking over, preferably in the state expression and not purely organization (a la port Gdynia in 20 years) strategical projects for Poland. Thus, not to execute them diagonally, with reservations and explanations, that the erstwhile power made many mistakes, but to take over with conviction and complete – with simultaneous display of differences with the erstwhile authority – the specifics on the table are secured by means, real schedules, transparency.
Of course, there is no “propaganda”. But again, the belief that tens of billions of PLN can be spent on multi-annual projects going beyond the horizon not only this, but the next and yet another word without real social support and communication are dreams. If, as part of the expenditure of more than 100 billion PLN (the CPK and KDP project) allocate 0.1% (one thousandth) of the budget for communication, it inactive gives PLN 100 million. This is not propaganda, but necessity, if these projects are actually to be created and not to be a form of weakening the ruling camp by the current opposition and supporters of building large projects.
Something ends, something starts
The breaking point for the fresh coalition will not be the beginning of governments and cleaning up after PiSe – where their interests and program are comparatively consistent. Powering the conflict with the president will be an perfect pretext for the abandonment and rolling of a conflict distracting from the concerns of everyday life, to which the state's budget, drained over 8 years of publishing under the party's interest, will not be able to respond. erstwhile (if) the president comes from a fresh coalition, the clash axis will naturally decision to the KO – 3rd Road line, as well as falling out of the SLD game and their candidate Vladimir Cimoszewicz created a vacuum that was filled by PiS and PO, who were previously allies in the fight against post-communists.
Losing a PO candidate would be a immense blow to the organization and would mean changing the hierarchy on the opposition side. The improbable triumph of Holowna on the 1 hand would have been a large individual and organization triumph, on the another hand it would have taken distant the current sense of the existence of a political environment that served as a cryonic chamber to keep in the political game Holovnia until the right moment. The unexpected triumph of PiSu with could start, as in 2015, the process of their return to power, but would besides frost the political conflict in which anti-PiS and the ability to defeat this organization is simply a key origin determining social support for opposition parties. A 3rd consecutive failure in the presidential election of the PO candidate would put the credibility of this organization under a large question mark.
The natural solution to the fresh government of forces (in case of a coalition candidate's victory) would be accelerated elections, which may, however, be lacking in the majority in the current parliament unless the budget is passed and the fresh parliament president resolves.
The crisis within the coalition may manifest itself after the 2025 presidential election - their logic will drive the conflict, as in 2005 between the PO and the PiS. The failure of the PiSu candidate will besides most likely mean serious shuffling on the right – with the possibility, at least theoretical, of fighting for a part of this cake from the 3rd Way. The start of a shy generation change will request a further series both in politics and in its business-media environment.
Picture: Bob May / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
