A geopolitical map of Europe is changing in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.Russia is expanding military production beyond the request for an ongoing conflict, which raises concerns about its further plans – possibly even to NATO. Ukraine, in turn, struggles with the exhaustion of the army, corruption and the failure of control over any territories. Will the West be united before Russia exploits the weakness of its opponents? In the game of influences, Poland can play a key function – as a buffer, partner or leader of fresh governance in Central and east Europe.
Andrzej Derlatka
Russia publishes data suggesting strong economical growth, but it is mostly due to the massive expansion of the arms manufacture – weapons production has at least doubled and exceeds the needs of the war in Ukraine. any experts say that Russia is preparing for another conflict – possibly even war with NATO. The Baltic states, especially Latvia, appear peculiarly threatened, where almost 40% of citizens talk Russian, not necessarily being cultural Russians. Lithuania is besides in a hazard region – although the percent of Russians is around 6 percent there, the shortest way to the royal circuit takes place, which is strategic.
The question is whether Russia has the means to strike – the answer is yes. Europe, present being dispersed and politically inconsistent, is incapable to successfully argue Russia. Only a united Europe can halt Russian ambitions. We're besides weak in this state.
Let me quote Sienkiewicz and the celebrated anecdote of trilogy, in which Onufry Zagloba asks: what is stronger – an army of lions commanded by a ram or an army of rams commanded by a lion? The answer is clear: even a weaker army, but well commanded and organized, is more effective than a dispersed army. This is an accurate metaphor for Europe's current situation. Changes towards integration are already taking place, but unfortunately – very slowly.
Ukraine under pressure: front crisis, corruption and time game
As far as Russia is concerned, Ukraine remains a key issue. For Russia it was irretrievably lost – Ukrainians massively rejected Russia and frequently manifest strong feelings of hostility towards Russians. Although Ukrainian authorities are counteracting acts of force and cultural tensions, it is impossible to hide that Russia has lost social influence in this country.
However, Ukrainians have serious problems. The army is in a dramatic situation – soldiers are exhausted and reserves run out. An example is the battalion trained in France, which, upon arrival at the front, deserted. There are besides many signals of corruption in the army – even high-ranking commanders are arrested for embezzlement. It all weakens morale and military structures.
Russia plays with fatigue – like a hammer hitting multiple times in 1 place armor, it hopes that yet this armor will crack. If there is simply a breakdown of the Ukrainian front and administration, The Russians will be ready to usage this minute to take over the initiative.
The situation is so serious that the United States' approach has changed. After earlier halting aid to Ukraine, now – after talks between Trump and Zelenski – the resumption of supplies of defensive weapons, including anti-aircraft systems, was announced. This shows that the US understands the geopolitical importance of Ukraine – they like to have it on their side alternatively than to let it to become part of the Russian-Chinese block.
Russia besides wants to end the war – but of course on its terms. Minister Lavrov in a fresh interview with the Hungarian press clarified their demands: designation of the territories acquired, without ambition to absorb the full Ukraine, which was the first objective.
It was not possible to rebuild imperial Russia with Ukraine in its composition – and this means Russia's deepening dependence on China. This Kremlin would like to avoid, but it is increasingly clear that Russia will not be able to function as a stand-alone power without China's support.
Russia is increasingly losing its ability to act independently in global policy. It becomes dependent on China, which in many cases will impose its own conditions. This does not necessarily coincide with the interests of the Russian people. present the Russians are beginning to realize that their situation is becoming little favorable – and that dreams of regaining the superpower position are becoming little real. Even in a fewer years.
She's not in danger of breaking up, even though any analysts are considering that possibility. A more realistic script appears to be gradual dependence – economical and possibly territorial – on China. Beijing has consistently sought to reclaim the lands lost in the 19th century, specified as Vladivostok or crucial areas of Siberia. In Chinese schools, he learns about the "unbalanced treaties" with Russia. This shows that China has not forgotten – and will not let go. For Russia, accustomed to dominance in the Far East, is simply a serious threat.
Geopolitical puzzle: the future of Ukraine and the function of Poland
Russia is becoming increasingly active in the war in Ukraine. Eventually, Moscow will gotta sit at the negotiating table. Its conditions are already known today: designation of the acquired territories, including those that have not been formally occupied yet – like parts of the Zaporosian or Kherson region. It is possible to draw a border along Dniepr – which would match the situation of the late 17th century erstwhile the Republic of Poland lost these lands to Russia as a consequence of the alleged peace of Grzymułtowski (1686).
The Russian concept of Novorosia is an effort to rebuild past influences – from Donbas to Odessa. The goal would be to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Although specified a imagination is improbable to come actual – the West will not accept Ukraine's failure of access to the sea – the designation of Crimea as Russian is becoming a reality. This is evidenced by statements by Donald Trump, who stated that Ukraine lost Crimea “without 1 shot”.
In Russian rhetoric, the subject of “denasification” of Ukraine is besides coming back – under which Moscow understands, among others, the illegalization of structures identified with UPA and CNS. Russia is counting on Poland's reaction, which besides has a negative attitude towards these organisations – especially in the context of the Volyn massacre. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian authorities do not realize the importance of this problem – inactive there are monuments to criminals like Roman Szuchewycz, liable for the extermination of Poles.
These were not accidental acts of cruelty, but planned political action – cleansing Ukraine from the Polish population to guarantee its dominance after the war. It's profoundly historic, but inactive affecting modern relations.
If Poles voting for belonging to a given territory to Poland are removed, Ukrainians gain an advantage in a possible plebiscite. But specified a plebiscite never happened – the limits were set in Yalta and Potsdam. The final territorial decisions were made by Stalin, who later passed on any of the Polish lands of Ukraine, including those rich in coal.
The Plebiscites were so unrealistic. Unfortunately, Ukrainian leaders have made serious mistakes. Poland and Ukraine were, are and will be neighbors – no substance how reluctant individual looks at it. Even if Ukrainians do not want cooperation, they must deal with Poland.
Russia has its imagination of the future of Ukraine – it wants its demilitarisation and neutralisation. This is her authoritative negotiating position. At the same time, the backroom Russians present different plans to divide Ukraine. Medvedev showed maps with dissection variants in which east and confederate Ukraine – inhabited by cultural Russians or russified Ukrainians – would be located in the Russian sphere of influence.
Russia demands that the remainder of Ukraine, especially around Kiev, be a neutral country, friendly to Russia, but independent. There is no longer a return to the situation from the time of Yanukovych, but Moscow expects this part of Ukraine to not join NATO, to be demilitarized and not hostile to Russia.
The Russians besides rise the demands of ‘denasification’ of Ukraine – in their knowing of removing the influence of the CNS-UPA – and ensuring the rights of minorities, including the right to make Russian culture. specified demands would concern this “Kytowska Ukraine”, no longer incorporated into Russia territories.
A separate issue is Western Ukraine. As early as 2000, Putin, in an interview with Prime Minister Tuski, jokingly suggested the demolition of Ukraine and the transfer of Poland to Zbrucz. Although Poland rejected specified reasoning and supports the integrity of Ukraine, Russia continues to inspire specified narratives, trying to convince the West that Western Ukraine does not fit with the remainder of the country culturally and identityally.
Russia believes that she is the heir to Rusi Kiev, and Western Ukraine – dominated by Greek Catholics, pro-Western and culturally independent – poses a threat to this narrative. There, another tradition – Russian but not Russian – that Russia cannot accept.
There were besides concepts of creating a fresh model of cooperation, resembling the erstwhile Polish-Lithuanian Union – present understood as a Polish-Ukrainian union. specified a task could bring Ukraine closer to the West, even without formal EU membership, and at the same time give Poland a leading function in the reconstruction process of Ukraine.
Ukraine faces tremendous corruption – it is estimated that 40% of the aid provided is being stolen. In this situation, the thought arises that Poland – more unchangeable and organised – should be the main partner of Ukraine in the reconstruction and implementation of reforms, especially in the field of self-government, which in Poland proved to be a success.
In the long term, there could be a loose confederation in which Ukraine would hold full sovereignty, but it would work powerfully with Poland and the European Union – not through absorption, but through integration. Although these are inactive concepts, it is worth analyzing.
Poland is besides facing political and social challenges today. Despite deep divisions, there are reasons for cautious optimism – our country is well organized, and its function in the region may even increase if it makes wise usage of this historical opportunity.
