Herem warns that Russia can build adequate military capacity within six months to begin aggression on the Baltic countries.
Although according to the General, Russia is improbable to march straight to Tallinn, Berlin or Warsaw, Putin can do crucial harm in another way.
“ Moscow can bring troops to the border and place an ultimatum. If we're not ready then, what are we gonna do? We will prevent war if we surrender, says Herem, referring to Moscow’s ability to challenge Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which speaks of common assistance for allies.
"Development of military possible will encourage Vladimir Putin to take further military action"
The situation for the Baltic countries can become peculiarly dangerous at the time of the possible cessation of the war department in Ukraine.
— Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers will halt fighting. Russia's resources and resources will accumulate elsewhere, explains Herem in an interview with Die Welt.
Since the end of active military service, the General has worked for Milrem Robotics, an Estonian arms company that develops and manufactures unmanned ground vehicles. It estimates the current regular Russian military production for:
- 80 Shahid assault drones,
- 2500 FPV (First individual View) drones;
- 40 recon drones;
- three manoeuvring missiles;
- And 3 ballistic missiles.
According to the Estonian General, Russia is besides able to produce between 50 and 120 bombs a period and 3 million artillery missiles a year.
“ Russia will have more than 10,000 Shahid assault drones available in six months. This is simply a pace not to be ignored, says Herem.
The model of this unmanned aircraft was developed by Iran. Tehran initially supplied this weapon to Russia, and now Moscow has mostly taken over the production of this kind of weaponry, based on Iranian patterns.
Herem fears that this expansion of military capacity will encourage Vladimir Putin to take further military action if he manages to suspend the fight in Ukraine on his terms and Russia will not be held liable for its aggression.
U.S. reaction may be late
In light of Trump's statements about Ukraine, which are consistent with Kremlin propaganda, the question arises as to whether the decisions of the president of the United States are based on a solid and thoughtful strategy. If Trump acts on the basis of unreliable information, this could lead to NATO defence problems.
Herem believes that in the event of a possible conflict, time is the most important. The General fears that due to the unsure attitude of the US under the administration of the fresh president, Washington's consequence may be delayed.
Meelis Oidsalu worked for over 20 years in the Estonian Ministry of Defence, most late as Deputy Secretary General. He is presently the editor-in-chief of the safety diary The Baltic Sentinel and co-hosting the “Security Today” programme on the tv channel of the paper “Postimes”.
In his opinion, Trump's threat of withdrawing US troops from Europe and Greenland or Canada only aggravated uncertainty among allies.
— In this situation, Trump is expected to decide at any point to a crucial simplification in the US quota in Europe and that this will have a very direct impact on collective defence in the Baltic countries, says Oidsalu.
In his opinion, Europe must prepare for this anticipation and fill the gaps in the capacity created by reliance on the US.
"Ukraine is an introduction"
Estonian Minister for Defence Hanna Pevkur besides fears that Russia will deploy troops close Estonia, Finland and the Baltic States if the war in Ukraine is frozen or ended. According to Pevkur, the improvement of the Russian armed forces provides for the deployment of units specified as 44 in the region. Army Corps, 6th Army of Joint Forces (Air Force and Air Defense) and 69th Division of Motorized Rifles.
— The fact is that they can pose a clear threat not only to Estonia, but to the full Baltic region, Finland and NATO," said Pevkur at a press conference in late March.
Herem's successor as commander of the Estonian Defence Force, Major General Andrus Merilo, said that the direct threat from Russia is presently low due to the fact that Putin's army is tied in Ukraine. Russia, however, can deploy between 250,000 and 300,000 soldiers close the Baltic countries after a short break in the battles.
It is clear to Merilo that "Ukraine has never been Russia's only strategical goal".
— Rather, it was an introduction to its strategical objectives through possible military action against European countries,” he adds.
In view of the tight safety situation, the Estonian government has decided to increase defence spending to at least 5 percent of the Gross home Product (GDP) since 2026. Last year Estonia ranked second among 32 NATO members, with 3.4 percent participation — for Poland and before the US.
Talin is trying to improve his defenses. For example, last summertime Estonia announced that it would buy ammunition worth EUR 1.6 billion (about PLN 6 billion 870 million, counting at the current exchange rate), but has not yet concluded the applicable agreements.
— We became attached to the feeling that we were protected better than always before. The problem is that in the Baltic countries we have overestimated our abilities, criticizing Oidsalu.
“Things are very bad”
General Herem warns that while the EU and individual plans, specified as Estonia and Germany, to increase defence spending sound good, concrete measures and investments inactive do not have adequate results.
Raigo Pajula/AFP / AFPMartin Herem (illustration picture)
Estonia was the largest buyer of ammunition in Europe in 2023 — not per capita nor in relation to gross home product.
— If we are the biggest buyers, it means that things are very bad — economically, we are much smaller than Germany, says Herem.
The general sees the main problem in defending Europe, the Baltic States and Estonia against possible Russian aggression — as in Ukraine — in an air hazard. Frontal attacks can be resisted.
— But we must be able to defend ourselves against assault drones, ballistic missiles and maneuvering missiles. It is not just about air defense, it is about eliminating the attacker,” says a 4 - star general.
Oidsal's military expert commends NATO's function in defending the Baltic states. The United Kingdom commands troops in Estonia, Canada in Latvia and Germany in Lithuania.
— We must look at the defence of the Baltic countries as a whole, and I would say that Germany is most likely making the biggest military contribution at the moment. What they do — brigade created in Lithuania, the cooperation of the defence manufacture with Lithuania — is impressive, he said.
Another problem in most NATO states is the deficiency of military personnel. Estonia introduced compulsory military service in 1992, 1 year after independency was restored. It besides serves to train reservists, the core of the Estonian army, which presently consists of 7,100 active soldiers and 41,000 reservists. Estonia has only 1.37 million inhabitants — little than Warsaw.
Herem emphasizes that he's not talking about spreading panic.
— We should not fear that Russia will attack, but that we are not prepared for this,” he says.
In his opinion, only 1 way to prevent war.
“We must prepare ourselves so well that the enemy knows that we are prepared,” concludes General Herem.
