"The findings of intelligence services are worrying: Russia has switched to a war economy and spends 1 3rd of its budget on armaments," he writes on Friday (20.06.2025) in the online edition of the German weekly "Der Spiegel". According to the Western Service Weekly, for months, they have warned that these weapons are not only intended for war in Ukraine.
"The Moscow will arm itself to attack the West," we read. The European Union responded to these warnings by adopting an arms programme worth EUR 800 billion and the European arms manufacture is accelerating. However, the latest study by 2 renowned institutes raises doubts as to whether this is adequate – says "Der Spiegel", citing the publication of the Kilonian Institute of planet Economy (IfW) and Brussels think tank Bruegel.
According to analysts, arms production in Europe "is not increasing fast adequate to keep pace with the threat from the east". "It should be 5 times higher, and in the case of tanks even six times," the study says. They besides criticise the fact that unit prices of military equipment are far besides high. "No cooperation or research. Germany and Europe are at hazard of further technological delay, says economist Breugel and IfW Guntram Wolff. – And at a time erstwhile our ally, the US, threatens to withdraw".
"Despite the advanced cost of defence in Europe, reinforcement may fail," warns Wolff, quoted by "Speel".
Three affirmative Trends
Analysts mention the statistical summary "Kiel Military Procurement Tracker", concerning defence procurement in Europe and Russia. Although the availability of defence procurement backing has improved since September of the year erstwhile statistic were presented for the first time, it is now crucial that these expenditures translate into production capacity and sustainable growth.
According to the report, EU countries presently spend 2 percent of their defence budgets, with a clear upward trend. any EUR 130 billion is spent on purchasing fresh defence equipment in the European NATO countries. Analysts list 3 affirmative trends.
The first concerns a crucial increase in artillery production. "For example, the Rheinmetall Group based in Düsseldorf produced 70,000 pieces in 2022 and is expected to produce 1.1 million pieces in 2027. This means an increase of 1471 percent. This puts Europe ahead of production in the US, and can so catch up with Russia and North Korea", we read in the report's discussion of the report's conclusions by "Spiegel".
The same applies to the haubic: With a production power of 442 units, Europe "practically caught up with Russian production data", added.
Thirdly, the number of workers in the defence manufacture is increasing. "This increase is eleven percent across Europe, with a much higher increase in individual companies. The leaders here are Rheinmetall with an increase of 42 percent and an Airbus aviation group of 24 percent," writes "Spiegel".
Not adequate tanks and maneuvering missiles
However, tank production is poor. "In Europe, practically only the German Leopard tank is produced, and even then only 50 units per year. Along with Abrams tanks from the USA, which are produced 135 per year, it is not adequate to keep up with Russia," we read.
The same applies to maneuvering missiles, including hypersonics, and air defence systems specified as Patriot batteries. According to the report's calculations, there are 35 units in stock, 10 are ordered. You request 89 pieces. Production and procurement request to be accelerated.
Given the advanced prices, the EUR 800 billion that the EU wants to invest in defence by 2030 is not adequate to fill the gap in military equipment, the authors acknowledged. They pointed to the "cost-effectiveness" of defence contracts in the EU. The reason is that countries order mainly at home and the defence marketplace is besides fragmented. Therefore, alternatively of focusing on quotas, Europeans should discuss the essential defence capabilities – the analysts demand.
New technologies are key
They besides item dramatically low investigation spending: EUR 13 billion, while in China it is 21 billion, and in the US it is 145 billion. The authors of the study postulate the creation of a investigation program involving universities.
They besides point out that the ability to produce drones and unmanned autonomous ground and sea units is crucial for modern warfare. "However, they make so rapidly that it is not worth to accumulate them in reserve, as is the case with conventional war equipment. Rather, they require continuous improvement and adequate production capacity to be available in the event of a conflict," we read.
It has besides been estimated that the armed forces would request between 250,000 and 300,000 fresh soldiers, especially for land combat. If there was a Russian offensive, most likely in the Baltic region, for example the alleged Suwałki pass, we read.
