Nawrocki mobilized the PiS
According to the exit poll data, almost 83 percent of PiS voters of 2023 voted for Karol Nawrocki on Sunday. It is simply a definite success and the highest percent of returning voters among all electorates. The negative script here assumed a large outflow towards competitors on the right. In the end, little than 12% decided to choose Mentzen or Braun – but these voters with a advanced probability will return in the second round.
Nawrocki's biggest problem is that he failed to win fresh voters almost at all who had not previously voted for the Law and Justice.
Mentzen encouraged the most fresh voters
The situation is different with Sławomir Mentzen. The leader of the Confederacy managed not only to hold a large part of the electorate from the fresh parliamentary elections, but besides to win quite a few fresh voters – they represent almost half of his support. It is besides worth noting that Sławomir Mentzen convinced himself of the most people who had not previously voted.
However, in the context of the unity of the group in the future, the advanced consequence of Grzegorz Braun may be problematic, which as much as 1/3 of his constituents gained just in the Confederation.
Divided Left
An interesting distribution of votes is besides seen erstwhile it comes to left-wing voters. The largest part of cake was taken here by Adrian Zandberg – as much as 35 percent, almost 29 percent received by Magdalena Biejat. Interestingly, as many as 17.2% of left-wing voters from 2023 elected Rafał Trzaskowski this time.
As for the consequence of Magdalena Biejat, in support of the candidate, it consists of only 1/3 of the vote of the Left voters. The remaining part of the consequence is mainly the flow to the another side, from the coalitions – 1.3 percent points with KO and 0.6 percent points of 3rd Way voters
A akin distribution can be seen with Adrian Zandberg, but the leader of the organization Together managed to gain much more fresh voters.
Outflow from the 3rd Way
Of all the electorate groups, the top outflow can be seen erstwhile it comes to 3rd Way voters. Only 36% of them voted for Simon Hołownia. The another candidates besides took a part here, nevertheless the 3rd Road was the most received by Rafał Trzaskowski. The mediocre consequence of Szymon Hołownia is above all the consequence of besides small mobilisation of its own electorate and the trace acquisition of fresh voters.
As far as Rafał Trzaskowski is concerned, the candidate KO lost about as many voters as he gained.
