Anna Dryjanska: If parliamentary elections were held now, the Law and Justice would win with the support of 28.3%. The Citizen Coalition would be ranked second with a consequence of 25.6%, after falling support by over 7 percent points. The power would be taken over by the PiS with the Confederacy. Is Donald Tusk worried? The 2027 election is inactive far away.
Kamil Smogorzewski: This is not a tiny fluctuation or a statistical error. It's a trend that started after the presidential election, but it's only now that we're starting to see its scale. The answer to the question whether the Prime Minister should be afraid about this is yes. Even more: the ruling coalition voters in qualitative investigation anticipate vigorous reactions. This is simply a very good time for brave, spectacular actions.
You say it like it's a drama for KOs, a tweezer, a two-digit drop.
When there's drama, it's besides late. It takes more than 7 percent points in 1 period to make it clear that the Citizens' Coalition will be able to regain the assurance of voters in the close future. Of course, there are more than 2 years before the election, but on the another hand, more than 1.5 years of Donald Tusk's regulation has been behind us. The minute for a extremist change of course is now.
What is the main reason why voters and voters turn distant from the civilian Coalition?
There is no single primary cause. Let's start with losing her candidate in the presidential election.
Trzaskovsky's fault?
This isn't about the candidate's identity. It's about losing the civilian Coalition. More than 10 million Poles who voted for her typical feel a sense of loss. This can be called political mourning.
When we examined social sentiments just after the election, it turned out that their movie counterpart would be "Wedding" by Wojciech Smarzowski. As if the minute is uplifted and joyful, but yet from the beginning something is incorrect – and something is incorrect with the wedding present, then again the bigos turns out to be broken, until here the bride runs distant with another. At the end of the day, any people have a hangover and others don't have it just due to the fact that they're inactive drinking.
Anyway, nobody feels peculiarly good, due to the fact that on the 1 hand Trzaskowski did not win, and on the another hand "their" government does not deliver. The deficiency of legitimacy of the government is simply a motive which is reflected in respondents' responses.
And yet for months people have heard that in a moment, already in a moment, the Coalition on October 15 will carry out the electoral promises of 2023, only to have a "own" president. A period ago, it turned out this plan wasn't gonna work.
The Tusk government needs a new, effective strategy and quickly. The election run has already de facto begun.
Are people discouraged?
Yeah, and we're tired of the election marathon, but not only. any of them have a well-known mechanism: they do not want to go with losers. Of course, this does not mean that they will go to the PiS website, but it is about powering the electorate of the Left, Poland 2050 or PSL. And this temper will most likely pass quickly, but it should besides be taken care of.
By the way, the fresh end of the 3rd Way besides affected the fall in the support of the KO.
How?
Among the voters are people who support Poland 2050, but no longer PSL and vice versa. However, they do not sympathize with the Law and Justice or the Confederacy, so so far they could bet on the civilian Coalition. In the case of 1 electorate, these interest rates are most likely not large, but erstwhile we consider the voters of both ruling coalitions, then we see shuffling.
Now that Simon Holovnia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish decided to go separately, voters, for whom the 3rd Way leader was 1 or the other, could no longer support this organization in the Coalition on 15 October, to which they were closest.
What would you indicate as an crucial reason for the clear decline in the support of the KO?
Content of wallets of Poles and Poles. After the Law and Justice governments, it is expected that further projects will be implemented to increase the wealth of society or at least the sense of growth, which, by the way, ended about in 2019. After that, the Law and Justice never again created a gap between the expected standard of life and the real one, which allowed the Coalition to form on October 15.
Except until today, that teardrop inactive hasn't been buried. There is simply a reflection in consumption, but it is inactive under expectations.
In qualitative investigation we hear that voters have a feeling that there is inflation of 20-30 percent! Of course, it is much lower, but on the basis of specified feelings people make decisions.
"Feel"... And the facts? So, inflation, change of 500 plus in 800 plus, widow's pension...
The widow's pension is simply a very good example of bad communication. If the Law of the Left were adopted during the time of the Law of Law and Order, the public would have been bombarded for months with a message of good change that the rulings had made.
Advertisements and videos would flood the Internet, in cities, towns and villages thousands of banners would appear, and there would be occasional picnics everywhere. Politicians of the Jarosław Kaczyński organization would talk about the widow's pension from morning to evening on social platforms and in the media.
Of course, I am a bit hyperbolized, but most people would surely learn about this task and, above all, about its positives. PiS Members would usage the same words and arguments from the message of the day.
Who is ridiculed.
And which works due to the fact that it is very carefully prepared for social sentiments.
But let us return to our present power. Not many people know about the widow's pension, although wages have just gone. It's a large mistake.
Maybe the government just doesn't want to make policies at death.
It would truly be possible to make a run at a level that promotes this witnessing, even if it shows how the lives of those who are to receive it will improve.
However, I would not like us to focus on the widow's pension, specified examples are many. The government doesn't brag about its achievements, so people don't feel like anything's happening.
So the occupation itself is not enough. It is besides crucial that people feel that the government is doing a good job.
That's right. However, it seems that something may change in this respect by the government spokesperson who is now in office.
This was understood by Barbara Nowacka, although in RMF she said rather awkwardly that in the context of the border the most crucial thing is the sense of security, not safety as such. Her message is now twisted, but clearly she meant that it was not adequate for the border to be safe, due to the fact that it is besides essential for people to have a sense of security.
Besides, the feeling that the crisis is raging on the border with Germany – although in reality there is no crisis – is another reason why the Civic Coalition is losing it. This political narrative, which deliberately exaggerates the scale of the phenomenon, intensively promotes right-wing social media accounts. And they are successful due to the fact that they have respective times bigger coverage than liberal or left-wing accounts.
In addition, there is already a communicative in them that if the service can't find 1 criminal hiding in the woods, how can they handle migrants? And the government is late with a reaction to the fear that has been awakened in society due to the fact that it is only now announced that it is introducing temporary controls at the border with Germany and Lithuania.
We'll see if and how this affects the next study. For the time being, the weaknesses of the government are mainly reflected in the Citizens' Coalition, as smaller parties have not reported crucial changes in support.
Do you have any good news for the Citizens' Coalition voters?
In the first circular of elections Rafał Trzaskowski won over 230 1000 votes more than in 2020. The PiS candidate in the first circular lost over 2.6 million votes.
But what difference does it make if the president is simply a PiS candidate?
Jarosław Kaczyński is besides not in a good position and he is well aware of it. He besides knows that the number of votes in 1 election may have a postponement. Therefore, at his last convention, he emphasized that Law and Justice had to work hard.
Donald Tusk can inactive radically change course, although it will not be easy. This is simply a minute of momentum, courageous decisions, effective communication. This has to happen if the Civic Coalition wants to think about another government. 2 years left with a piece.
