Crisis at the Caribbean threshold. Conflict between Venezuela and Guyana

A satellite photograph showing the Essequibo region in Guyana. // Wikimedia Commons

The region of South America and the Caribbean shook the diplomatic crisis between Venezuela and Guyana at the end of the year. Venezuela, authoritarianally ruled by Nicolas Maduro, recognized in early December 2/3 of Guyana's area as part of its territory. Guyana turned down her neighbor's claim. The U.S. and large Britain openly supported Guiana. What are the roots of this dispute? Can there be a war? What function does Venezuela's interior situation and Guyana's economical success play in this crisis?

The announced 23 October and the consultation referendum held on 3 December in Venezuela strengthened the territorial dispute between this country and Guyana which has lasted for decades. The Nicolas Maduro government addressed Venezuelans with 5 referendum questions in which voters were asked to support the government's position Venezuela on the dispute with Guyana and on the agreement to make another state of Venezuela in the dispute. According to authoritative figures provided by the government at the turnout of 51.01% eligible for each ‘Yes’ question, more than 96% of voters replied.

Guyana considers the referendum a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. In October, Venezuelan army began to grow road infrastructure close the Guiana border. Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana, assured his compatriots that he would not quit on his neighbor. During the November referendum run in Venezuela, Guyana's authorities asked, among another things, the global Court of Justice to prohibit Venezuela from holding a referendum. On 1 December, the MTS banned Venezuela from violating the position quo in relations with Guyana, but did not address the issue of referendum itself.

The roots of the Venezuelan-Guian dispute

The disputed territory called Essequibo is simply a bone of discord for centuries. At the time of the Spanish colonial empire, Spain considered this jungle-grown, sparsely populated area to be an integral part of Venezuela, which was then part of the empire. However, Spain's control in this area was purely illusory. In the 17th century Essequibo colonized Dutch, and in the 18th century besides British. The second yet subjugated Essequibo in 1796 and started a large-scale sugar cane cultivation.

Venezuela, which gained independency as a consequence of the dissolution of the Spanish Empire in America, did not intend to admit British power in Essequibo. Venezuela and Britain remained in territorial dispute until the end of the 19th century, erstwhile nearly 90% of the disputed territory was granted to the United Kingdom as a consequence of global arbitration in Paris in 1899. Venezuela was represented during arbitration by the United States due to the fact that in 1887 it broke bilateral relations with Britain. For this reason, among many Venezuelans there was a belief that the settlement was the consequence of a collusion between Americans and the British. Nevertheless, subsequent Venezuelan governments recognized the consequence of arbitration until the 1960s.

In 1962, Venezuela changed its position to date and declared British governments in Essequibo illegal, citing the Severo Mallet-Prevosta memorandum, representing Venezuela's side during arbitration in 1899. He accused 3 of the 5 members of the arbitration tribunal of collusion against Venezuela. In February 1966 Venezuela and the United Kingdom concluded the Geneva Agreement. Under this agreement, both parties agreed to recognise the 1899 border as legally binding until the final settlement was reached. In the same year, Guyana, who gained independency from Britain on 26 May 1966, joined the agreement, becoming a organization to the territorial dispute with Venezuela.

By 1970 Venezuela had pursued an aggressive policy towards the weaker Guyana, forming military posts on the disputed border. In 1970, a 12-year moratorium was concluded for a Venezuelan territorial claim against Essequibo. In 1982, it was not extended, but Venezuela no longer took hostile action against Guyana.

After Hugo Chavez took power in Venezuela in 1999 and began in the alleged Bolivarian Revolution (it was named after Simon Bolivar, the hero of the South American independency conflict against Spain), bilateral relations improved further. Chavez, during his visit to Georgetown, the capital of Guyana, in 2004, stated that the dispute between the 2 countries had ended.

Opposite trajectory

The conflict between Venezuela and Guyana flared in 2013, erstwhile the crew of the oil-seeking ship off the coast of Guian Essequibo was arrested by the Venezuelan fleet. The following year, Guyana granted an oil exploration and extraction concession to the American company ExxonMobil, which, before the Bolivian Revolution in Venezuela, had immense investments in the oil sector there, becoming 1 of the enemies of the Venezuelan authorities. Venezuelan regulation since Chavez's death in 2013, Nicolas Maduro gradually tightened his rhetoric towards Guyana, who in 2018 applied to the MTS requesting the validity of the 1899 arbitration result.

Guyana has developed very dynamically over the last fewer years. Oil extraction and economical reforms facilitating abroad investment have made Guyana's economy 1 of the fastest growing. According to planet Bank data, Guyana achieved a staggering 63.4% GDP growth in 2022.

At the same time, Venezuela was in crisis. Nicolas Maduro fought opposition to his governments, for example by falsifying the 2018 presidential election. Western countries with the United States of America have responded to these actions by imposing economical sanctions. Sanctions combined with mismanagement of Venezuelan economy have led to economical collapse in Venezuela and the emigration of millions of Venezuelans.

The Threat of War

The tension in the region has been very advanced since the announcement of the results of the Venezuelan referendum. Guyana began strengthening her military forces in Essequibo and asked the US and the UK for help. At the same time adjacent to Venezuela and Guyana from the south, Brazil reinforced its border posts close Essequibo, and its authorities warned against the threat of war in South America.

On December 14, Presidents Maduro and Ali met in the territory of Saint Vincent and Grenadines. They failed to resolve the dispute, but in a joint declaration after the summit they renounced the armed means of resolving the conflict. But the tension didn't stop. On December 24, the United Kingdom announced the assignment of the HMS Trent ship to Guyana's territorial waters in a motion of support for Guyana's territorial integrity. Maduro responded to this by order of 28 December of the Venezuelan Army exercises close the internationally recognized border with Guyana.

At present, there is no announcement of a deescalation of the conflict. In Venezuela, presidential elections will take place in the second half of 2024. Their fair and equal conduct is simply a condition formulated by the US to abolish the sanctions imposed on Venezuela. Whether Maduro yet fulfils US demands or not, the crisis with Guyana is beneficial to him. In a fair election campaign, he can present himself to voters as a leader firmly defending Venezuelan interests, as opposed to the opposition. On the another hand, if Maduro had decided to tighten his relation with the West, he could have presented his interior opponents as people plotting with Guyana to trigger a war.

Only time will show how the dispute between Venezuela and Guyana will end. In an increasingly unstable world, however, this is another dangerous point of inflammation.

Oskar KMAK