Time flows fast, and it has been 5 years since the first text published on the blog (August 2017). It was an amazing journey for me. I remember present erstwhile I put links to my first texts on Facebook groups.
I got my first readers through a group Geopoliticsand Geopolitics and Geostrategy. Then it came to three: Geopolitics Pro. Years ago, these groups were the main tool for reaching the audience. This gave me about 3,000 regular readers who accompanied me from the very beginning, and their support motivated me to compose more texts. Many of them later made pre-prime orders: "The 3rd Decade“so I knew that the book could besides interest a wider audience. If he gets the chance.
In all of this, the sense of mission was important, but besides the hope that publications bring with them any concrete value, and the thesis put in the texts are as close as possible to the real thing as possible. I utilized to think about it all time individual spoke to me who had cognition of the subject and congratulated the article.
A breakthrough for the blog was the outbreak of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. Then this is the text: "By 2022 Russia will start war in Europe or the mediate East" Written in September 2019, it covered all possible social media. And although it would have been better if the war had not started, the facts are that 900,000 views of the aforementioned publication translated into the designation of the blog itself and its author. There were interviews on tv and on celebrated channels on Youtube. Only then did I feel the “status game” and the first attacks of trolls
7 Most Popular Articles
To the state of August 25, 2022. blog pages remained shown in total3 million 485 1000 times.
Below I present a list of texts that have so far obtained the largest number of views:
Comparing the above-mentioned table with those I remember a fewer months ago – a tiny Copernican coup took place. The topics of the war in Ukraine dominated the blog. Nevertheless, it is besides hard to be surprised. For a long time, however, a historical article entitled: "Pact with the 3rd Reich – an alternative, or the worst dream of Poles?, which I consider highly crucial (now 23.6 1000 views).
It worked.
In both the texts and the book, I have always tried to make predictions based on the data previously presented in the article. Noting that they should not be regarded as a certainty, but alternatively as an intellectual play, which was based on concrete reasons. erstwhile writing publications in the first years of the blog, I did not fishy that so many of them would actually work. On the 1 hand, these successes were satisfying, on the another hand, I don't remember many (or possibly none) affirmative predictions, so it's hard to enjoy erstwhile things happen in the world.
However, below I collected most of these accurate forecasts, which frequently caused more views after years of publication.
Play for a Belorus
The first text on the Belarusian subject blog appeared on 25.08.2017 during the upcoming 2017 ZAPAD maneuvers. In a short text: “The hot chair of Alexander Lukashenko (...)” I explained what Putin needed Belarus to do and that it would shortly be possible to anticipate interesting events related to this country. At the time, no 1 wrote or raised the issue of Belarus, which was inactive seen as a one-dimensional subject of Russia. This subject has been further developed in the study: “The game of Minsk. Belarus becomes a fresh front. Challenge for Poland.”au August 22, 2018. The text was written as a consequence of reflection of a crucial deterioration in the relation between Minsk and Moscow. The main conclusions of the analysis were that it was time for the West (and specifically the US and Poland) to start a fight for the “turnover” of Belarus, or although the support of Lukashenko in his fight to preserve the existing status quo:
“In my opinion the coming years and possibly even months will be crucial to the destiny of Belarus. We should prepare for this and do everything we can to defend Lukashenko and aid him defend his country from the Russian army. “
and then:
“Of course we do not have the right force for specified actions, but pAmerican alleged (and you can “convince” others) to the task described (created bid for Belarus and reversed) It shouldn't be difficult. It was not, this American-Russian game, and the dedication of Belarus puts the United States in a bad negotiating position.”
Just 2 months after the publication of the text, the Americans sent Aron Wess Mitchel to Minsk on 30 October. Following this visit, the United States attempted to “pull” Alexander Lukashenko from the Russian sphere of influence. The Russians reacted by cutting off gas and oil supplies to Belarus. The West so organised the transport of gas through the Lithuanian Klaipeda, and Poland proposed to sale oil in a ‘versus’. Everything seemed to be on track until the 2020 presidential election came, when, as a consequence of the social force associated with the fraudulent election, Aleksandr Lukashenko asked for support from Vladimir Putin. From that point on, it should be considered that the destiny of Belarus has been sealed. At least for a fewer years.
However, in the text I “felt” the minute at which the game for Minsk should be taken, which clearly covered observations in Washington. For me personally, it was 1 of the most crucial successes in terms of the ability to measure the global situation.
IRAN REIMPLEMENTATION — BACK TO REQUIREMENTS
May 8, 2018 – “IRAN – Pers sentenced to life isolation?”– Text written 2 weeks and completed and published by the celebrated performance of Donald Trump, who broke the atomic strategy with Iran. The analysis is multi-threaded, it remains up to this day, but 1 conviction is worth mentioning from the forecasts, in the context of the USA's relation with Iran:
“Thus, the long-term maintenance of the agreement with Iran is virtually impossible“
This thesis proved actual so in the context of Donald Trump's breaking of the agreement as well as later. I inactive have the view that a long-term agreement between the United States and Iran will not exist. An armed conflict is more likely to be initiated by Israel and the party.
AUSTRALIA IS NOT GOING TO BE OUT OF THE U.S.
In the autumn of 2019, a subject related to the geopolitical choices of Australia appeared for a moment. At the time, there was a pushover between China and Australia, but the main origin of media coverage was possibly Kevin Rudd's book (former Prime Minister of Australia) and the related promotion. The Polish geopolitical community rapidly picked up the subject and presented the situation of the Kangaroo Country in line with the promotion of Rudd's book. The password – the banner was "Australia chooses sides". The problem was that Australia did not choose any side, due to the fact that it entirely belonged to the American faction and there could not be a change of front. For very many reasons, besides purely geopolitical. I described this rather in item in the text of October 7, 2019: ‘Australia awaits a choice between China and the US?’One of the lyrics:
“Australia had long chosen and it was inactive in the 1950s. Despite the fact that the economy of Australia is powerfully linked to the economy of the Central State and is simply profiting from trade with Beijing, however, the geostrategic origin is decisive. Australia is an island country. Dependent on the sea and maritime trade. Therefore, the Australians must hold the sea side of the Hegemon, which is the United States.”
From the position of 2022, the subject of the geopolitical choices of Australia should be considered as a marketing catch. Australia has since 2019 intensified its cooperation with the US, both politically, economically and militarily and industrially (vide Resignation of the acquisition of French submarines for the benefit of the US).
POLAND BECOMING ENERGY HUB FOR CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPE?
Text published February 19, 2020 and the title itself was highly controversial for some. I presented in it that the possible acquired by Poland as well as extended investments in Polish energy will interest. And they'll let us be quarterbacks in our region. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine of February 24, 2022, the thesis posed with the text remained highly recent. In fact, the reality may have even exceeded expectations, as at any point even Germany negotiated with Poland the supply of oil by Naftoport in Gdańsk... It is not yet known whether we will support Berlin in gas supply during the coming winter. crucial thesis:
“The puzzle above seems to confirm the repeated thesis on this blog that Poland was just in a unique geopolitical window, in which its national interests coincide with the interests of the planet hegemon. This time should be utilized as best as possible, due to the fact that it is not known how long it will last. It would be a mistake to turn your back on the circumstances and not usage that moment. “
and:
“The dependence of our neighbours on our transmission infrastructure (gasoports, Baltic Pipe), will automatically put Warsaw as the leader of the region. The energetic dependence of neighbouring countries on Poland can give us a wide scope of political opportunities. The capacity to make policies in the region, to make its own centre of gravity in the European Union, and to strengthen at all another level. This is an unimaginable opportunity, the reality of which should scope even the top skeptics."
THE US WILL GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN – PROBLEMS OF PAKISTAN
In the text on: “Pakistan – the gateway to geopolitical hell.” Although I did not forecast it, I argued that there is no alternate to leaving Afghanistan. And indeed, Trump made that decision, and Biden realized it. Below is simply a passage from the publication:
“The United States has 2 options. To retreat from Afghanistan, to lose prestige due to admitting defeat, and then, with India's support, to engage heavy in Pakistan's interior affairs (return, revolution, civilian war). The second option is to make another effort to rapidly beat the Taliban. Which would not be the wisest solution given that the US could not do this from 2001 to today. Especially erstwhile Donald Trump announced a halt to financial assistance to Pakistan and accused this country of lies and fraud."
ARMY OF A fresh MODEL AND REALITY
The analysis is simply a substantive criticism of the S&F team's report, which presented the alleged fresh Pattern Army. It is not a place to divorce, but simply read the text: “Army fresh plan and reality” to see that 1/3 of criticisms about the erroneous geopolitical and strategical assumptions have been actual since the publication. The next weeks of wars in Ukraine devastated the ANW's assumptions and confirmed the correctness of the charges raised in my analysis. To what degree this thesis is actual will be seen by anyone who reads the publication to the end.
What I am most pleased about is that I received many congratulations and feedback from the military. From majors, through colonels and commanders to generals. Anyone who followed a Twitterer closely could have seen or guessed it. Militaryity is an area in which I do not feel as good as in global policy issues. He was all the more crucial to me. feedback. That's how I know the charges were right, and this kind of community service makes sense.
The USA TURNS RUSSIA – NO RESET
Publication of April 28, 2019 was created by the conviction of geopolitics that American-Russian ‘reset’, ‘Second Yalta’ or ‘inverted Nixon’ (Different people called it otherwise) is inevitable. As a consequence of the incorrect assumption, it was concluded that Poland should take a course for Germany alternatively than the Anglo-Saxons. And search agreement besides with Moscow by beginning communication channels (which were not closed at the time).
Convincing Inevitability deal Washington with Moscow led to the conclusion that NATO was falling apart, Russia would play the West and gain crucial concessions and Poland would so stay “on ice”. The remedium was to be to reconcile with Poland's subordinate function towards Berlin, to ease the dispute with Germany and to search agreement with Russia. It was pointed out that Poland should trade with the Russian Federation and strengthen cooperation, due to the fact that the Anglo-Saxons will do so as shortly as the alleged deal Putin.
At the time, all essays concerning “advice” for the Polish government were created in the scope mentioned above, where it was pointed out that “real policy” should be conducted.
One of the most crucial passages of the text:
‘The Americans want more players on the planet chess board to side with them. There is no “neutrality” here..
In addition, The United States will not accept any multipolar strategy in the world's strategy of forces.
Thus there can besides be no “Second Yalta”. Why? due to the fact that If the Americans had accepted Kremlin's independency in global politics, removed sanctions from Russia and restored it to an crucial political place on the global stage, then Moscow and Berlin would immediately have formed a strategical partnership. Meanwhile, the Berlin-Moscow axis would be tantamount to the challenge of balancing the influence of Washington and Beijing. This would lead to multipolarity. What the Americans want to avoid at all costs.”
The Germans are in front of the US?
The failure of the presidential election by Donald Trump and Joe Biden's triumph were believed to bring immense changes. The announced US-Russia reset did not follow Trump's gathering with Putin in Helsinki. However, Joe Biden was about to be the guarantor of specified a turn of events. Especially due to the fact that he truly felt aversion to the Polish government, and at the same time he chose a fresh beginning with Germany and France. Geopoliticists read it as a rational policy leading to effective solutions for the US. It was indicated that Poland would either find itself in this situation (e.g. sending any beautiful boys to negociate with Berlin) or lose. due to the fact that the destiny of Central Europe is already determined. In view of specified voices, on December 20, 2020 I published the text: "How will Germany capitulate before the United States?” where I wrote:
‘in the American interest is to keep the existing [acute] lInici towards Berlin and its complete surrender. Encouraging Germany to finance American troops, while at the same time continuing its cooperation with Poland and strengthening its position towards Berlin."
I argued that Germany is an unreliable partner who will always flirt with Russia. The United States must so search an alternative.
As we know today, Germany has compromised itself as a leader of the EU, an ally of NATO and a state liable for safety in Central and east Europe. The administration of Joe Biden – despite his reluctance to the Polish government – did not abandon cooperation with Poland, and as a consequence of the Russian invasion, this cooperation was powerfully strengthened. It is Warsaw that is becoming a local leader and even German media see it. Poland has survived a short, hard political period and is now the most crucial player in terms of support for Ukraine. Warsaw is besides the most crucial European capital for Kiev, which can be seen at all turn. What would be the case if before the invasion of Ukraine we paid political tribute to Berlin and possibly due to the influences of German politicians, the Polish authorities, alternatively of taking advantage of the moment, would alienate the Ukrainians even more? What if Poland waited to aid Ukraine erstwhile the second was attacked by Russia?
The above-linked text has not yet been fulfilled in its entirety, but in view of Germany's attitude, the author believes that the US will lead to Berlin's complete surrender and submission. The Americans will remember the attitude of the Germans during the Russian-Ukrainian War. At this point there is no time for this (you gotta search approval alternatively than divisions), but the Washington administration will surely learn from German politics in the future.
Russia envelops Urraina by 2022
Text of September 24, 2019, is well known so I will quote only 1 quote:
‘In my opinion, Vladimir Putin intends to close the negotiations with the US and reset before 2022. Until then, the Russians have been anxious to increase their energy prices. If this does not happen in the close future, the Kremlin decision-makers will want to integrate with Belarus by 2021 at the latest. 1 way or another (if Lukashenko continues to roam, it is even possible to inspire the coup). In order to be able to blackmail Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics even before 2022 (not only in the context of the reset with the US, but besides due to gas supply agreements). Only in this way will the Russians warrant to keep and even strengthen their position towards the US."
INVESTIGATIONS FOR UKRAINE
Daily February 6, 2022 The situation between Russia and Ukraine was already very tense. The Russians left considerable force along the border with Ukraine, but it seemed that the number of troops was besides modest to strike. Hence, many specialists either doubted the attack or indicated that it would only be conducted in the south-east. In order to get a land connection between Crimea and the remainder of Russia.
I admit that I was fighting with my thoughts at the time, due to the fact that I was convinced that the goal must be Kiev and complete submission to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the information leaks indicated that Russia inactive has besides small power to accomplish this objective. For these reasons, I was skeptical about whether this was a rational and appropriate minute for the Russians to go to war. However, I outlined then a broad position – why the parties were in specified a place alternatively than another – and at the same time indicated that war is most likely inevitable. Quote from end of text:
“At the same time, I am convinced that to invade Ukraine sooner or later it will simply happen. due to the fact that there is no reason to believe that the US and Russia are able to enter into a mutually beneficial agreement. Moreover, even if the United States had shown weakness and submitted to Russia's demands, this would not have determined the automatic subordination of Ukraine under Moscow. For Ukrainians can be determined to defend their sovereignty even in solitude. And then the Russians would gotta force their way to Kiev.”
In the face of specified a constitution, I indicated the directions of Russian strikes and the intent of the operation – Kiev. It turned out that reality was almost entirely covered with what I described in the text: "Will Russia invade Ukraine and how can it run?
ABBREVIATIONS
Here I would like to thank you – readers. Your blog visits show that the content here is valuable to you. Nothing motivates to compose texts more than the awareness of this fact.
I peculiarly thank all those who have always and in any way contributed to the promotion of the blog and its content. If you click “I like it”, share the text further, quote a passage of it by showing the origin or take any another action that might have helped in the improvement of the blog – thank you!
I hope that my publications and work will proceed to meet your expectations and even more. The quality of texts will increase further.
Greetings.
Krzysztof Wojchal
