In September 2021, I made my point. I myself published a written over 2 years and containing more than 600 pages of a book in which I painted almost the full geopolitical scenery of the world. In addition to analyses of the global situation, the local situation, as well as the individual countries, in the 3rd Decade, I set many forecasts, which took up nearly 200 pages by volume. The 3rd anniversary is simply a good time for a summary.
What are the predictions that have already come true, what have I been incorrect about, and what predictions are inactive pending? I present more importantly thesis below, as well as brief passages of wider arguments justifying predictions.
It is besides worth remembering that in the 3rd Decade, not only was the second Russian attack on Ukraine foreseen, but, therefore, the forecasts of another events that could consequence from this were besides listed. These – after 2022 – are unfortunately inactive valid.
- There will be no second reset between the US and Russia (s. 454).
‘Why won't there be a reset with Russia?
Perhaps the most clear contrast resulting from the above considerations is the difference in the expectations of decision-makers from Washington and the Kremlin authorities regarding the US-Russian agreement. The American imagination is so different from the Russian 1 that 1 cannot neglect to see that they de facto exclude each other.‘
2. There will be no American-Chinese war, not even Taiwan. This 1 could become a deal deal. (p.456 and p.463).
"For all these reasons, it is improbable that the ongoing rivalry will consequence in an attack by the US against China (or vice versa).
... Especially since the invasion of Taipei would in practice affect an open declaration of war by Beijing, which would have its political and economical consequences. If the Chinese had taken specified a step, they could have been certain that the US Navy would have blocked the Malakka Strait and the planet would have stopped trading with the mediate State. Even if this would consequence in advanced economical costs. This script would gotta end in an economical and financial disaster in China.
... Thus, China is able to sacrifice the Russian Federation. However, it is surely an exhibition Moscow would gotta have a advanced price. This could be Taiwan.”
3. Threat of escalation in the Korean Peninsula
“The Beijing authorities will gotta calculate a script in which the US will attack North Korea, destruct its atomic possible and neutralize its conventional military forces.”
4. Russia, after subjugating Belarus and introducing troops there, will make the second – This time full scale – invasion of Ukraine (p.477-478).
“Moscow will take full control of Belarus and introduce Russian troops to it.
(...)The same – as described earlier – Ukraine, Poland, the USA and NATO can await a clash with the Russian Federation in defence of Kiev.
(...) The most likely military mark of the Russian Federation will be neutral and without formal allies Ukraine.
... Stopping Russians in Ukraine would mean their defeat, which in turn would end their large geopolitical game of power status.
... From the position of the Kremlin, a flash strike, which already in the early hours would deprive the Alliance of the chance to assist the Kiev authorities, could completely isolate Ukrainians. The lap of the Ukrainian capital in this case would be a substance of time, as would its surrender. Russia would like to avoid a long, devastating and costly war. However, instant scalpel cutting and putting the U.S. ahead of the fact can be considered by Kremlin decision-makers as a final option. The Russian experience would let them to change their administration in Ukraine efficiently, prepare appropriate propaganda narratives (such as calling invasions "freedom from bandiers") and avoid military business of the territory acquired.
... On this basis, it can be assumed that the possible armed aggression against Ukraine will besides not be a formal interstate war.“
5. The US and China will come to an agreement and Russia will stay alone (p.460).
"In making the argument that the agreement on the Washington – Beijing line is not only possible, but besides probable, it is appropriate to indicate, at least, the viewable form of the agreement and to justify under which conditions both parties would agree to it. Of course, this would require correct guessing of the priorities of the US and China, as well as of demands that would be unacceptable to them. This task is highly difficult, although respective boundary conditions can be identified as a starting point in specified considerations.(...)"
6. Russia will lose in Ukraine and plunge into crisis (p. 487-497).
"So there are 2 possible scenarios of large sadness. The first is 1 in which central power uses troops and another uniformed services to pacify local politicians, opposition leaders and societies. The second option threatens even civilian war at worst.”
7. China faces a major crisis (p.498-509).
"(...) while the United States has tools to hope that the US economy and finances will hold Chinese competition, the Chinese do not have a chance to last on the global marketplace longer than the Americans and their dollar.
... This is the effect of abrupt melting that can happen in China on an economical and fiscal level. Everything's gonna be fine until everything goes wrong. ‘
8. The US will win with Russia and in the short word with China, after which they can break down for interior reasons and opt for isolationism (pp.510-530)
"If the Washington authorities do not reconstruct strong social trust to administrations and state services, it will be impossible to get the essential social support under the economical crisis.
(...) In a planet of global global governance, isolationism can be an effective way of maintaining American potential.‘
9. The Taliban will regain controlAfghanistan and will become a threat to their neighbours, including Pakistan (pp. 538-540).
“JThe Taliban's determination and the pace of advancement will not change, they will shortly regain full power in Afghanistan. This kind of success will build a legend of the people who defeated and displaced the 2 world's top powers: the Soviets and the Americans. If so, the Taliban will be unstoppable.”
10. War against Iran is simply a substance of time (p. 541-543).
"All of this leads to the conclusion that Iran will stay alone, even in the face of possible air strikes from opponents. The hazard of specified an attack, geared towards the decommissioning of atomic and rocket improvement and investigation facilities, will be higher each year. Especially since the fresh president of the United States, Joe Biden, is improbable to be able to reconstruct the atomic agreement..’
11. Turkey may leave NATO after the end of the war in Ukraine (p.544-546).
"It seems that Ankara will stay in NATO until Moscow's threat ceases.
... The next decade so appears to Turkey as a period of large effort, effort and considerable economical and political costs, at its own request. Ankara, despite being able to participate in respective initiatives against Iran, Russia or Syria, has been sentenced to global loneliness. specified a disastrous way of conducting abroad policy cannot in turn lead to the restoration or creation of any empire. ‘
12. Israel will attack Lebanon to break Hezbollah (p.548).
“Israel's intervention in Lebanon would let Tel Aviv authoritiessecure the northern borders of the state.Of course, it would not be about the armed business of a hard mountainous terrain, but about the disintegration of Hezbollah's military potential.and another groups threatening Israel. If it were possible to establish power friendly to Tel Aviv, then the Jews could declare the success of a possible expedition (...)”
13. The weak EU will gotta submit to the US (pp. 469 and pp.551-552).
"The fact that the EU is capable of opposing the U.S. ultimatum seems powerfully exaggerated. Therefore, it is expected that the Western Unit (North America and Europe) will be re-created, together with the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. And this will surely affect the reaction of both players.”
14. Germany will agree to Ukraine's accession to the EU after the war (p.568).
"If, for example, Germany had refused Ukraine to join the EU, Kiev, for deficiency of an alternative, would have narrowed bilateral cooperation with Warsaw. This would build Poland's position in the region. In an effort to counter this, the RFN would gotta agree to bring Ukraine into the Community, hoping that holding its hand on the EU cash registry would be able to make Kiev dependent on subsidies and EU funds. ‘
15. Germany may fall into an economical crisis (p. 561-563).
"(...) Although the possible of the national Republic of Germany categorizes it as a planet power, it may be very susceptible to all sorts of stress-testing.
... If you consider that a possible global recession could affect the Chinese industrial and production power, the more the crisis would hit the German economy. And she stands in the mediate of a planet ringing without holding her guard, making her susceptible to the blows of Americans and Chinese standing in other corners.”
16. A Union of 2 speeds may be created, with the nucleus Germany-France-Benelux (pp.566-569).
‘In this way, the State of the nucleus of the Union, i.e. Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, would make an intra-EU political and economical bloc that would regulation separately from the remainder of the Community. This would, in fact, be an EU solution without giving up access to the markets of countries belonging to the contractual second circle."
17. Threat of the Second muslim Revolution in France (p.571).
"The conclusion is that if the French authorities do not pay more attention to social issues and do not take more effective measures to combat the causes of the problems that exist, the country will sooner or later be in interior chaos. The second French revolution may prove to be an Islamic-African coup in France, especially since young, socially excluded (often due to their own responsibility or parents) Muslims are very susceptible to revolutionary and extremist slogans, which is utilized in recruitment by terrorist organizations.”
18. Poland must prepare for the Russian-Ukrainian war and build a strong army (p.592).
"Therefore, the Polish authorities – but besides the army – must be ready to make bold decisions and steps that will not let specified a danger to arise. If Poland wants to halt the Russian Federation, it must do so on its forefield and even before the start of a full-scale war.
... Poland must make the best possible usage of the coming years to prepare to intervene with its neighbours as part of NATO activities. Stopping the armed expansion of the Russian Federation is possible.”
21. Hungary will be pushed out of the European Union and Poland will aid with this due to Orban's pro-Russian attitude (p.601).
"Meanwhile, governments in Poland are no longer so loyal to Hungary. erstwhile there's a change in power. Two, that even the Eurosceptic Polish government will do the will of the United States if they decide to get free of the unwanted and cooperating Putin Viktor Orbán. And specified will may exist, especially if the United States wins the rivalry with Russia and arrange Europe to their liking.
JA shadow of hope for Hungary is the triumph of the Kremlin in the struggles with Washington, the submission of Ukraine by Russia and the return to the deal on the Berlin – Moscow line. This would have disastrous consequences from the point of view of Poland.’
22. Portugal can become the second Greece and fall into an economical crisis, as could Spain and Italy (pp.606-611).
"This does not change the fact that Portugal can be listed in 1 line with Greece in the next crisis. The advanced debt of this country may prove to be lethal to the economy erstwhile it shrinks besides much as a consequence of the global crisis.
... An additional problem will be the impact of the crisis on Spain, with which Portugal carries out revived trade.
... However, what happens if both countries melt at the same time as, for example, the immense economy of Italy?"
23. Russia will retreat from Syria and ISIS may be reborn (pp.613-616).
"Therefore, there is simply a hazard that Daesh will remember himself and will effort again to gain the top influence in Lewant erstwhile the war is resumed in Syria and Iraq. Only this time can ISIS leaders not repeat mistakes from the past.
... specified a gloomy possible is all the more likely, the more individual powers will retreat from direct engagement in the mediate East. This can be seen even in the next fewer years. The Russian Federation does not have unlimited forces and resources. The Kremlin will yet gotta face a decision to retreat completely from Syria. What is not to be judged about Moscow politics is surely the Russian presence in Syria acts in a stabilizing way. Their absence will mean problems for lonely Assad.”
24. Azerbaijan will take the Mountain Karabach as Russia focuses on Ukraine (p.619).
“However, this suspension will not last forever. It is expected that erstwhile the Russian Federation focuses its attention on a more delicate region of east Europe, then Moscow's safety guarantees may prove fragile. After fresh successes, Azerbaijan's authorities could get appetite and, as shortly as Kremlin's engagement in the region of Zakaukazia declined, dBaku activists may again issue an order to the offensive.“
As you can see, the book inactive retains its prognostic value despite the passing of 3 years and a very wide scope of material – which only increased the likelihood of fast failure of news. A In addition to this, more than 400 pages of ongoing analysis are present, describing the geopolitical, economical and social conditions of 35 countries.
On the occasion of the 3rd anniversary of the release, the book can now be acquired with nearly 33% reduction! Promotion valid until the end of September. Link to the store below:
