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Day 787
Today, many messages came out from the direction of Kharkiv.
Here Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale attack run against Russian forces' concentrations to prevent Russian strike forces from gathering in the region that could enable Russians to launch offensive operations in Kharkiv
This was a direct consequence to the increased strength of Russian strikes in the region, as well as suspicious reorganizations of their military structure.
Firstly, the Russian Ministry of Defence late introduced a fresh direction of Belgorod to its situation reports.
Secondly, the Russian Ministry of Defence late formed the North Force Group, which is located precisely in this region, which further indicates that the Russians are considering the offensive on the Kharkivs and will start it if Ukrainians show any weakness.
The first decision was made by the Russians, as their military commanders importantly increased the attacks in fresh weeks for both military and civilian purposes throughout the Kharkiv region and its capital, utilizing the disastrous situation in terms of the anti-aircraft defence of the Ukrainian army.
Geolocated recordings show Russian attacks on various Ukrainian targets
The first video shows the demolition of 2 MLRS missiles located in Kharkov.
Since secondary detonations were recorded, rocket launchers were seemingly close to entering combat mode.
Russian attacks with circulating ammunition have besides increased significantly, especially those utilizing Lancet systems.
Several films show hits in Ukrainian assets specified as artillery and, most importantly, russian Ukrainian radar equipment P-18.
The analysis of elements hit by the Russian forces indicates that the aim of these attacks was primarily to reduce Ukrainian artillery firepower and thus to let the possible accumulation of troops close the border.
The Ukrainians responded thus and launched an intense run of preemptive strikes in Russia, which led to their deficiencies in anti-aircraft defence systems.
Ukrainians trust on better reconnaissance capabilities, and respective georeference videos show impacts in different places close border areas.
The first movie shows the demolition of the hidden T-72 tank and the combat MT-LB infantry car.
A complete set of recordings shows that the army continued to trust mainly on FPV drone attacks, which could be expected given the critical situation of artillery supplies
However, as many analysts have estimated, FPV drones can only be a partial and short-term solution, given their different limits in terms of range, payload and effects of radio-electronic combat systems.
Subsequent films show hits in Russian minibus UAZ Buchanka, electronic combat equipment “pole-21” and various another military transport vehicles, as well as Russian surveillance strategy Murom-M.
Finally, the last video shows the FPV drone in the movement hitting the BM-27 rocket launcher “Uragan”.
On the another hand, the analysis of elements hit by Ukrainian forces suggests that the aim of these attacks was mainly to concentrate forces, logistical elements and another surveillance resources specified as reflection posts, so Ukrainians are trying to weaken the accumulation of forces.
near the border
Analysts from the Institute for War investigation have late stated that the threat of a possible Russian offensive on Kharkiv or Suma already forces Ukrainian commanders to shift parts of limited Ukrainian resources to build additional defensive fortifications
They stated that, whether this hypothetical offensive is successful or not, it could at least origin a tense situation that would importantly affect another areas of the front line.
The fact that Russian forces have taken the initiative throughout the theatre gives them the chance to conduct opportunistic offensives in almost all area of the front lines.
Finally, the Institute for War investigation added that the window of anticipation to carry out decisive offensives before the Western aid arrives, suggesting that they may possibly effort to exploit the situation in the coming weeks to get crucial breakthroughs at various points along the line
Overall, the situation in the Kharkiv region and its capital remains complicated
Source: Reports from Ukraine
