The following interview is simply a fragment of the publication of the Institute of fresh Europe – A year of fear and hope. What awaits Europe in 2023? [Report]
For almost 20 years, almost 1 individual has been deciding on Turkish politics. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan laverates in the mediate East boiler, deals hard with the European Union, and late tries to enter the function of negotiator between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, the president's first approach to economics led the country to three-digit inflation. Everything a fewer months before the presidential election – possibly the most hard in the career of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. "The opposition is uniquely united," says Dr. Karolina Wanda Olszowska.
Michał Banasiak: Most of the European countries clearly advocated in the Russian-Ukrainian War on the side of Ukraine. A fewer show pro-Russian pro-Russian sequences. And then there's Turkey, trying to line up with the wind all the time. He supports Ukraine, but inactive does business with Russia. awesome political cunning.
Dr Karolina Wanda Olszowska: Turkey has been moving a multi-vector policy for a long time, at least since planet War II. It's apparent to her. Even after the liberation war with the Greeks, Mustafa Kemal felt that despite all the points of contention there was a request to work something out, due to the fact that the peace abroad gives peace in the country. During the Second War, Turkey operated business with both Axis and Allied states. president Erdoğan continues this approach. On the 1 hand, he gets along with Russia, on the other, he patronises agreements under the auspices of the UN, and on the third, supports Ukraine. And from everywhere, he benefits.
"Peace abroad gives peace in the country". Looking at Turkey's economical problems, peace in the country is very needed.
Inflation is expanding all the time. Officially, it has 65 percent, and unofficially it may even be 180 percent. Bread prices can change all week. The property prices over the year went up by 200 percent and even more in Istanbul.
Russia now needs Turkey and Turkey knows it. Plus, he can talk to Russia for the first time as equal as he has, due to the fact that so far Vladimir Putin has shown Turkey that he is the quarterback.
How is Turkey's war policy doing? With a hard economical situation like this, does the Turks even care?
The Turks show that Turkey is needed by the world. That Turkey matters to everyone. The grain agreement with Russia is presented in Turkey as the large success of this country and president Erdoğan. And this is taking the test, which is clearly seen from Erdoğan's polls, which have been falling for a long time, and late not only began to stabilise, but even to grow. And that must be combined with abroad policy, due to the fact that the situation in the country is not improving.
The viral video shows Vladimir Putin patiently waiting for president Erdoğan to show up late. Turkey is taking the chance of war to strengthen its position in bilateral relations?
Russia now needs Turkey and Turkey knows it. Plus, he can talk to Russia for the first time as equal as he has, due to the fact that so far Vladimir Putin has shown Turkey that he is the quarterback. Turkey is now taking the chance to break the deadlock on any of the issues at stake. Turkey appears to have had a green light from Russia for raids on Syria in November 2022. The Russians have not only stated that Syria's airspace – over which they control – has not been breached, but, in fact, it has been reported that Russia is negotiating with the Syrian president to resettle the Kurds from the buffer belt. And we have the Caucasus. The president of Azerbaijan tweeted that Azerbaijan and Turkey now regulation the Caucasus. This, of course, is strong on growth, but the fact is that Russia, which has stuck in Ukraine, has late lost influence in the Caucasus for Turkey. In cooperation with Russia, Turks besides benefit economically. They have late importantly increased the bilateral trade balance, so in any ways they besides aid Russia to circumvent EU sanctions. In addition, wealthy Russian tourists in the West come to Turkey, where they leave quite a few money. The Russians are now the largest group among foreigners buying real property in Turkey. And these are frequently very large and very expensive. Staying in good relations with Russia just pays off.
In abroad policy, Turkey has the ambition to become a leader of the region, or does it want more and dreams of swindling to the most crucial players in the world?
Turkey has global ambitions, but they break into reality. Turkey is simply a mediate country with major economical problems and cannot afford to be a global power. He surely has a immense softpower and excellent geographical location that he can usage to care for his interests. He tries to show that he has akin opportunities as the United States, China or Russia, but he does not. It does not have specified opportunities as these countries, even financial and military. In the event of a threat, it turns to 3rd countries, most frequently the United States, due to the fact that it needs a protector.
How do efforts to meet Turkey's global ambitions look in practice?
Its politics pierces Ottomanism and sees part of the MENA region [Middle East and Northern Africa – op.red.] as its sphere of influence, where Turkish claims and dreams intertwin. After the arabian Spring Turkey had no good relation in rule with any of the countries in the area, but that has changed recently. On the margins of the mundial, president Erdoğan met with the president of Egypt, as-Sisi, and until late they were fierce enemies. In addition, talks with Saudi Arabia, the United arabian Emirates. Turkey invests in Africa, signs gas agreements there, provides humanitarian aid. He is trying to scope out with his offer especially to those countries that want to leave the French sphere of influence, perceived as postcolonial. She wants to show that she understands that she will be their global defender. She is inactive active in the Western Balkans. It has its institutions there, renews monuments from Ottoman times, runs Turkish courses. And of course it uses its position, for example in energy projects. Gas pipelines from Azerbaijan go through Turkey. The Turkmenistan pipelines are besides to run through its territory. It is so besides crucial for Western Europe.
Turkey remains theoretically curious in membership in the European Union. How much is Ankara's actual goal, and how much is simply a rhetorical figure, a tool that can be pulled out at a convenient moment?
Everyone knows that Turkey in the Union is simply a unrealistic scenario. EU membership remains an unfulfilled dream of being a part Europe, but at this point in time, the ruling have no illusions that this cannot happen. Besides, I think that given the interior situation – way of treating the opposition, jailing people without conviction, arresting journalists – The Union would not be in power. Officially, however, EU aspirations will remain. This situation has been going on for decades and will continue.
EU membership remains an unfulfilled dream of being a part Europe, but at this point in time, the ruling have no illusions that this cannot happen.
Their politicians, what does Turkish society think about it?
Turkey has a large Europe complex, and it is sometimes ostentatious that it does not want to go to this Europe. The European Union is associated with a better planet they would like to join, but will always be inaccessible. On the another hand, there are besides stories of Turks who for no peculiar reason did not get a visa to a certain EU country. It causes discontent. Politically, Turks feel treated by the West as a second-class country. It is alleged that the Union was never seriously curious in joining Turkey, because, for example, in the case of divided Cyprus, only part of the country was admitted to the Union, and Turkey inactive drew any unfulfilled criteria.
President Erdoğan could play the Union for his own use. Threats to open the borders of Turkey to migrants who could easy enter the Union. Can he inactive usage that threat?
Theoretically, yes, but in practice it is very small real. Turkey no longer wants EU money to support migrants, due to the fact that it does not want migrants at home at all. This is 1 of the main demands of the opposition, due to the fact that that is social expectations. In addition, I believe that the Union would not be able to be blackmailed again due to the fact that it has learned to play with president Erdoğan on akin terms. The top weakness of the West was that his very sharp moves were reacted with yielding. Now the West's not like this anymore.
Why does Turkey request Europe? I bet that there is, due to the fact that if not, Europe could have offended Turkey long ago – the pretexts and reasons are not lacking.
Above all, Europe cannot afford Turkey on the another side. It's hard to control, but it is. Sometimes he has statements or anti-American or anti-Western movements, but stick and carrot policies can be controlled. If we're talking during the war, let's look at military issues. Turkey has the second best army in NATO. Since the beginning of the Cold War, it has focused not only on buying equipment but besides technology. That's why she's now able to make equipment that is competitive for an American. Plus, the Turkish army is prepared to endure large losses, due to the fact that there besides soldiers and public opinion approach the death of a soldier on the front.
Turkey is simply a buffer for Europe between Russia and the mediate East. And this buffer is always better than against, due to the fact that then the buffer region moves. Besides, I do not know what another country could negociate with Ukraine and Russia as effectively as Turkey does today. erstwhile Russia threatened to break the grain agreement, Turkey offered its ships for transport and Russia withdrew due to the fact that it would not attack cargo destined for Turkey.
Turkey is simply a buffer for Europe between Russia and the mediate East. And this buffer is always better than against, due to the fact that then the buffer region moves.
Today's Turkey is identified with president Erdoğan. A bit like Hungary – we put a sign of equality between the state's policy and the world's view of its leader. But there are indications that we will shortly get utilized to the fresh name in Turkey due to the fact that we are facing elections. What could happen to Turkey after Erdoğan?
Indeed, any polls indicate that president Erdoğan will lose, although the last ones are better for him than those of a fewer months ago. The opposition is uniquely united, but it is at the same time so different that I do not know precisely how the government is imagined. We have parties with very different views and so far they form an anti coalition that can prove itself in elections, but be problematic after them. For now, it's not even clear who they're gonna put up as their presidential candidate. The best chances according to the polls are the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, but here nothing is certain, even if 1 of them will be president Erdoğan's opponent. Turkish politics are very variable and sometimes it is adequate not to follow Twitter for virtually a fewer hours to scope a fresh reality. So the question is what happens by June, due to the fact that a lot can happen, but I'm certain president Erdoğan will do anything to win. He knows that if he loses, he will most likely face the Constitutional Tribunal – this is announced by the opposition. That's why we're already talking about him leaving the country after losing.
Where would he go for political retirement? Or at least a political vacation?
The natural direction would be Qatar due to the fact that it has a very good relation with him. But in specified a country, it would be a hazard of being traded for various interests and agreeing to extradition. So they talk about the United States due to the fact that it's a country that respects the regulation of law. If Erdoğan had no adequate evidence, he wouldn't be in any danger. But it's all far-reaching speculation. president Erdoğan will commit all means to win and where possible influence the result of the election.
Turkish politics are very variable and sometimes it is adequate not to follow Twitter for virtually a fewer hours to scope a fresh reality. So the question is what happens by June, due to the fact that a lot can happen, but I'm certain president Erdoğan will do anything to win.
What will decide the outcome?
At the beginning of 2022, it seemed that the economical crisis was so large that it would alternatively be a thing that would lead to the end of the current power. In the 1990s, power was switched due to the crisis. However, abroad policy is now very much on the political agenda. The Russian-Ukrainian War, but besides Syria. Fear of terrorist attacks by the Kurds is inactive alive in Turkey, and the November outbreak in Istanbul only awakened him. The president picked it up immediately, and we already have the mobilisation of society around this well-known topic. It may so prove to be a Syrian issue in the context of Turkey's interior security. Here president Erdoğan can prove himself, and the opposition has no tools to act.
What would most change in Turkish politics after the opposition took power?
The approach to migration would surely change. The full opposition declares that as shortly as power reaches power, refugees in Turkey will be sent back to their countries. The issue of changing the presidential strategy back to the parliamentary strategy is raised. In abroad policy, Turkey would proceed to put concrete benefits and balance between different partners.
Photo: Engin Akyurt from Pixabay
