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Official @RFU channel translation
Day 772
Today, many messages came out from the direction of Kharkiv.
In fresh days there have been rumors everywhere about the alleged Russian plan to conquer Kharkiv as part of a possible fresh spring-year Russian offensive
In addition to Vladimir Putin's statements about the sanitary area, any high-ranking Russian officials anonymously informed about further details of the possible operation plan for Kharkov's lap to occupy the city without destroying it, utilizing conting
entu 300,000 Russian soldiers.
As an additional indicator, Ukrainian authorities have late reported that Russian forces have begun to hit the Kharkiv with a fresh kind of guided bomb called UMPB D-30, which is the evolution of a glide bomb with improved properties
Each ammunition consists of a unified module with foldable wings, a guidance unit, an interference-resistant satellite receiver, and a rocket propulsion or turbojet in the tail, giving it an estimated 90 km combat range.
These improvements bring them closer in terms of accuracy and maneuverability to projectiles maneuvering at a fraction of their price.
The Ukrainian authorities described reports of the usage of this fresh glide bomb over areas inhabited by civilians as an effort to terrorize civilians.
The Ukrainian authorities and military analysts have stated that there are not adequate reasons at present to make specified a large force that could have the intent of circling the city.
The various statements and actions seem to match information operations aimed at destabilising Ukrainian authorities, forcing additional resources to be active in this direction, and besides causing concern among the civilian population.
First, various Ukrainian analysts estimated that even forces of 300,000 soldiers would most likely be insufficient to attack and orbit Kharkov, and estimated that Russian forces would request at least half a million soldiers
Kharkiv, with a population of nearly 1 and a half million people, is the second largest city of Ukraine, meaning that there are much more blocks, factories and industrial zones in the city that can be utilized as powerful fortifications
For context, the seizure of Bachmut took the Russians 80,000 soldiers and 10 months.
Kharkiv is 10 times the size of Bachmut and 20 times the size of Bachmut in terms of population and number of blocks.
Interestingly, the estimated number of half a million soldiers is actually higher than what Russia is presently deploying across the full dimension of the front.
Secondly, even assuming possible additional mobilisation in Russia, preparing these fresh forces and their logistics for early spring or summertime seems unrealistic.
A highly respected Ukrainian military analyst described in item how Russian forces could approach the attack on Kharkiv
Firstly, the attack from the west would gotta face 2 key defensive nodes, Okhtyrk and Bogodukhov, which belong to the Kotelva – Valky line.
In addition, many fresh defensive lines have been built in the full Kharkiv region in fresh months.
Secondly, the alleged Russian plan clearly points to the city's lap, and the reason for this is that the Russians would avoid much more hard city fights, especially in specified a vast city.
Kharkov's lap would only be real if the Russian forces could decision further west from the Oskil River and at least scope the Czugujew – Pierwomajski line, which they have not achieved so far, despite countless attempts to advance into the
Kupinska market
As I analyzed in the erstwhile video, the attack from the northern part of Kupansk is rather hard due to the funnel created by the Siversky-Donets and Oskill rivers, which in practice forces the Russians to face 2 solid defensive lines 1 by one.
Finally, another critical challenge for the Kremlin would be to safe the confederate flank of specified a possible offensive
Alternatively, Russian forces could lead the 3rd direction, just from the south, only if they could scope Izium earlier.
From Izium could break both Ukrainian opposition east of the Oskill River and decision towards Kharkiv from the south.
However, the possible of occupying Isium seems unrealistic in the short or average term.
Similarly, the Institute of War Studies states that the Russian rounding operation of Kharkov would be very ambitious and would require long advancement on open ground, unseen since the launch of the full-scale invasion.
Source: Reports from Ukraine
